Oh, I'm not shooting down Sirius. I'm just saying that reports of XM's death are being greatly exaggerated. It's far ahead of Sirius. Though, you're right, Sirius has managed to win a strong lineup whereas XM is somewhat unfocused and unsure of the territory. They remain, however, the market leader.
Future problems -- Sirius getting the poor boy vote, and gathering strength. The FCC order that the companies get new sats up which can broadcast universally. I think XM will hold strong, simply because of the head start, until that happens. Once people have the choice to use their receivers for either (or both) services, then that's that. XM knows this and is fighting it.
XM has also broken into the portable receiver market with a bit more strength than Sirius, which was not only rejected by Apple, they were mocked openly. Their bid to partner with iPod was reaching for the stars, I think. A bit of a burn. XM just created their own iPod clone.
I think Stern's fans will close the subscriber gap but, at best, even the odds. He, alone, won't crush XM. Nor will the sports package.
This is akin to the Blockbuster vs Netflix battle. Same pattern, too. Blockbuster shows more organization, benefits and verve than Netflix, but Netflix had the field long before the barbarians came to the gates. They're dug in, despite moments of panic and knee jerk reactions. How has Netflix -- which is, really, inferior -- managed to hold strong against an outright assault from all sides (Wal-Mart, as well, has been hammering at them)? Critics say it's the name recognition. Like XM, Netflix held steady ground for years before the battle began. It's also all about keeping your current subscribers. A sort of siege mentality which, at the moment, XM has begun to practice. Netflix is still acting carefree but, before long, they'll start grouping all of us together and stroking us.
I think it's name recognition of another sort. Now move to Barnes & Noble vs Amazon. B&N, and Blockbuster, are associated with brick & mortar outlets, not online services. When I say Blockbuster, you think of the store down the street. When I say Netflix, you think of online movies. Easy.
What kills the leaders, in these cases (and with the exception of Amazon), is hubris. XM holds a solid lead, and they know it, and they think they can hold their five million and slowly gain ground. I know a guy who's pretty high up with them, and he's nothing but gung-ho. But the stronger Sirius becomes, it's like all the adults in Pump Up the Volume being surprised when the kids start to spiral out of control.
(I think it might be the reverse for Blockbuster vs Netflix. Bbuster is throwing everything at Netflix, which simply absorbs the volleys.)
