Brexit: Victory for Pub Racists and Soccer Hooligans

[nacho]

I feel like we should combine our EU threads... Didn't want to start a new one, and debated putting this in the Greece: Fucking Shit Up thread.

It's Brexit day! Polls close in a few hours and all the experts say there's pretty much a 50/50 chance that the UK will leave the EU. At which point there'll be hellfire and damnation (according to some) or nothing will happen (according to others). Either way, the boat's going to rock in some interesting ways.

[nacho]

So...wow. They really did it. Which is crazy and foolish. 52% voting to leave. Cameron is stepping down, paving the way for a right wing Nazi, no doubt.

This will also feed Scotland's bids for independence, and maybe Northern Ireland. And there's already talk about ousting EU immigrants -- currently 13% of the UK population. And what happens going the other way? Monkey?

[nacho]

Okay, made a thread so we can analyze and report as the years roll on... Cameron is out by October. Boris Johnson (shudder) is the favorite for the new PM. The British Nazis, AKA UKIP, are cheering in the streets. The vote is exactly what you'd expect -- the countryside was pro, the educated and traditionally oppressed were against.

So the two year divorce proceedings begin when the new PM takes over. It's not till then that they trigger Article 50, which makes it official. Pro-Brexit leaders have all randomly said 2020 will be the final break date (but Article 50 is very clear -- two years from trigger date).

NI and Scotland are calling for independence votes (though Scotland is the only one organized enough to do so). Trump is at his Scottish golf course praising this as a great day for the UK and using it to tear down Obama.

Meanwhile, the world press is going right for "who's next," with the Post predicting Norway, Greece, France, and Hungary.

(Oh, and Trump just said -- though no one is echoing it -- that he would help "dismantle the EU" if he were president. Ummm...)

[nacho]

Oh, and everyone is reporting that the pound has crashed and is the lowest against the dollar since 1985... But every currency exchange site refutes that. The pound has changed just marginally. Meanwhile, the Euro is sinking.

[RottingCorpse]

There's a great infographic floating around showing how the majority of the pro-Brexit voters were over the age of 60. The older generation has utterly fucked the younger one here.

[nacho]

And getting back in is difficult.

The older generation has always been uncomfortable with the EU. The only surprising aspect is that they successfully swayed the vote. That means that the youngsters didn't turn out in the numbers they should have...in which case, it's more accurate to say that the younger generation has fucked themselves.

Per your text -- I think the planning and timing is perfect. Scotland's referendum will be crippled by low oil prices. They'll only vote out if they're riding high on that wave...and that's their only wave. NI won't be able to swallow the Papists (as Monkey says). The gamble here is to destabilize the Euro, which will tempt the other weak links to leave the EU. And then that's that.

These UKIP fascists don't particularly care if they lose Scotland anyway. Small price to pay for nationalism.

[RottingCorpse]

Man, long term the implications are fearful. Germany & France's economies will stand up (hopefully), but  places like Greece who lied their way into the EU and then had huge buyer's remorse? The Nazi nationalists there will use Britain's exit to fuel their own even though living on the drachma isn't going to do them any better. Then you have countries like Poland who basically need the Euro to prop up their economy. They'll falter, badly.

Putin is watching all this, warming up the tanks, and wondering how soon to start moving west.

[nacho]

Part of me feels like this was inevitable, though. And even though we see that grey-haired vote, the feelings are there for the younger generation as well. Anger at what the EU has done to the UK seeps into even the most banal modern Britcoms.

It's been a convenience for the UK...but nothing more than that.

I think maybe this thread does belong in the "Greece: Fucking Things Up" thread, because that's the straw that broke the EU's back. Greece hanged a lampshade on the idea that the EU is composed of the haves who are supporting the have nots in what amounts to an artificial system. It only works if everyone says it works. For years now, people have stopped saying that it works. We've seen the ruptures in Ireland, Spain, Italy, the eastern countries, and then the fire finally took hold in Greece.

As for Putin -- his tanks still have NATO to worry about. The larger concern here is our policy of appeasement (the Ukraine) and what'll happen when these poor Eastern countries, some of which have never known true democracy outside of the last generation, are cut loose.   

[RottingCorpse]

What baffles me is that I'm trying to see how ultimately this EU separatism could be a positive move for the UK, and I come up with very little. Sure the Pound doesn't have to be linked with the fortunes of the Euro. (And today's giant drop isn't likely permanent.) However, the market will remain volatile for five years or more as the dust settles. As we note in the Greece situation, the EU is just a nebulous concept on some level. But it does actually have real world economic implications.

The fact that Northern Ireland and Scotland universally were opposed to EY separatism speaks leagues about the political troubles ahead, specifically in terms of North Irish home rule. It's 1910 all over again!

Other then "keeping the brown people out," what's really gained here? It seems lose-lose to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

[nacho]

British nationalism is nothing new. The EU's restrictions range from everything from work hours to fishing laws. There's a general sense of "faraway unelected officials dictating terms" that haunts a former Empire's nights.

I think Trump and the media are making the immigration spin. Yes, that's one of the issues. But even that issue is complicated. The heart of it isn't keeping the brown people out, it's that the brown people (or eastern Europeans, rather) only want to go there. Because why wouldn't they? Even in the EU, the UK is a thriving and strong economy. So the burden isn't being spread equally on many levels. Why should a handful accept the responsibility for the many? The EU almost comes off as a philanthropic organization more than anything from certain viewpoints.

It's a mistake, though. Don't get me wrong.

[nacho]

Yeah...

Charlie Brooker ‏@charltonbrooker  Jun 23
Cannot wait for 2016 Wipe.

[nacho]

Trolling the higher level news sites this morning:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/25/donald-trump-nigel-farage-us-election-brexit

No surprising conclusions there. You know, guys, I have a bad feeling...

[nacho]

So my big issue has been how this very big, nation-changing vote rode on such a narrow margin. America is a stupid country, when it comes to voting law, but the big stuff -- like adding a state or an amendment -- is based on a supermajority and not ten voters at a farmstead in Ohio. I agree that Brexit should have also needed a supermajority.

A parliamentary petition calling for a second referendum has attracted more than a million signatures, even as unprecedented demand temporarily crashed the website.

On Friday a government website saw an “exceptionally high” number of visits as hundreds of thousands of signatures were added to a second referendum e-petition in the wake of Britain’s leave vote.


EU parliament leader: we want Britain out as soon as possible
 Read more
By Saturday morning, more than 1 million people had signed up, 10 times the number needed for the issue to be raised in parliament.

The petition, set up by William Oliver Healey, states: “We the undersigned call upon HM government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based on a turnout less than 75%, there should be another referendum.”

On Thursday, 51.9% of voters opted to leave the EU, and 48.1% voted to remain part of the bloc.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/petition-second-eu-referendum-crashes-house-of-commons-website

[RottingCorpse]

It's no surprise that the EU leadership wants the UK out as soon as possible. At it's heart, it's an economic entity more than anything else, and they want to balance out the market chaos as soon as they can.

I just think this sets a precedent for all those little countries who put on dad's tie and jacket and somehow got a seat at the grown-up table. Again, Greece man, though the EU gains little bother inclusion. All those Norwegian countries with somewhat robust economies? They could pull a similar, "You know? Why *are* we part of the organization in which we get less than we give?" Then the whole illusion crumbles and Europe is in a giant depression.

I mean, Germany going back to the Deutschmark? The fucking country will collapse. And the other countries that will suffer the most by a weakened Euro are the eastern European ones near that crazy fucking Russian.

A lot of conservatives on y FB feed are railing that a sovereign entity has the right to be isolationist, but I just don't think that's how the world or the world economy works anymore. Like it or not, these various regional markets are all connected.

[nacho]

It does set a precedent for them. (Literally speaking, as well!) But will the illusion crumble? In some ways, a Greece exit (and a Hungary exit -- the other one that wants to go of the "poor countries" brigade) would be good news for the EU and the Euro. Even Norway going (the other big contender) wouldn't be a huge hit. The Scandinavian countries have treated the EU the same way the UK treats it. In fact, Norway is the only Scandinavian country that uses the Euro! (For that matter, Hungary hasn't adopted it either).

In theory, the EU and the Euro will be fine with a bunch of exits...unless another heavy hitter leaves (France).

"A sovereign entity has the right to be isolationist" didn't even work in 1914 when that was en vogue.