Author Topic: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition  (Read 18026 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline nacho

  • Hallowed are the Ori.
  • Walter The Farting Dog
  • You're a kitty!
  • *****
  • Posts: I am a geek!!
    • GS
Yeah, hurricanes are stupid now.

Anyway, let's start the pool on the 2008 KILLAR STRYM!

2008's season starts on June 1st, and those guys who don't know shit predict that it will be an "above-average" season.  They also suggest that rain and wind may or may not accompany what may or may not be hurricanes.  And then I saw them all running to the bank in their lab coats and hurriedly depositing their paychecks.

This year's storms:

    * Arthur
    * Bertha
    * Cristobal
    * Dolly
    * Edouard
    * Fay
    * Gustav
    * Hanna
    * Ike
    * Josephine
    * Kyle
    * Laura
    * Marco
    * Nana
    * Omar
    * Paloma
    * Rene
    * Sally
    * Teddy
    * Vicky
    * Wilfred

My money is on Cristobal, Fay, and Josephine.

Cristobal sounds like he's going to wipe out some Caribbean country.  I say Fay does a job on Florida, and Josephine will be my town-killing wildcard.

Offline Reginald McGraw

  • Old Timer
  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • ***
  • Posts: 6564
  • Crypto-Facist
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2008, 11:30:10 AM »
I make 2 predictions:

1) I predict there will be no hurricanes this year.

2) If #1 fails, I predict that no hurricane will cause more than $45 (from sale of stock!) worth of damage.

Offline nacho

  • Hallowed are the Ori.
  • Walter The Farting Dog
  • You're a kitty!
  • *****
  • Posts: I am a geek!!
    • GS
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2008, 11:32:34 AM »
Now, do you take a US-centric view of #2?  Because we had some wild storms in 07, but they all hit Not In America, and nobody cares about the people who live in Not In America.

Offline Reginald McGraw

  • Old Timer
  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • ***
  • Posts: 6564
  • Crypto-Facist
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2008, 12:10:15 PM »
There's places outside America?!?!

Yes, America only.

3) I predict that hurricanes will cause .332 Gooible-Rupees worth of damage outside of America (or 45 USD).

Man the dollar is really weak against the Gooible-Rupee lately.

Offline nacho

  • Hallowed are the Ori.
  • Walter The Farting Dog
  • You're a kitty!
  • *****
  • Posts: I am a geek!!
    • GS
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2008, 12:13:53 PM »
I can't help but think you're making light of mother nature!

Offline Reginald McGraw

  • Old Timer
  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • ***
  • Posts: 6564
  • Crypto-Facist
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2008, 12:50:12 PM »
She will exact her revenge with 3 direct strikes of my house by hurricane in 2008.

Offline RottingCorpse

  • Old Timer
  • You're a kitty!
  • ***
  • Posts: 23583
  • We got this by the ass!
    • http://www.lonniemartin.com
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2008, 02:16:04 PM »
Gustav and Sally . . . Long Tall Sally.

Offline Tatertots

  • Walter The Farting Dog
  • You're a kitty!
  • *****
  • Posts: 10038
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2008, 02:33:28 PM »
Josephine!

Offline Matt

  • working through the 1st 10,000
  • Old Timer
  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • ***
  • Posts: 7670
  • tourist
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2008, 06:04:22 PM »
Nana's gonna turn into a huge bitch, I'm guessing.

Offline Cassander

  • Cap'n 40 Watt
  • Old Timer
  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • ***
  • Posts: 6087
  • Simmer down now!
Re: 2008 Hurrican't Season: Nobody cares, but it's kind of a tradition
« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2008, 04:59:02 AM »
Why can't we all agree to name hurricanes in memoriam after dead celebrities?  that way we won't feel as bad.

Hurricane heath leveled san antonio today, but man....what a body of work!
You ain't a has been if you never was.

Offline nacho

  • Hallowed are the Ori.
  • Walter The Farting Dog
  • You're a kitty!
  • *****
  • Posts: I am a geek!!
    • GS
Quote
Contrary to the widespread view that a warming world will bring more hurricanes, a controversial new study suggests the number of cyclones could actually drop in the North Atlantic.

Hurricanes have become a lightning rod for arguments over what global warming might have in store. Most researchers agree that, since 1950, the number of hurricanes forming over the Atlantic has increased, and that since at least since 1980, they have become fiercer.

Many studies have blamed the increase in Atlantic hurricanes on increasing sea-surface temperatures, which fuel the storms. However, other ocean basins have not seen a similar increase in hurricanes.
Storm predictions

Tom Knutson and colleagues at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, US, built a computer model to simulate the formation of North Atlantic hurricanes, based on observed sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

Tropical storms and hurricanes formed spontaneously in the model, following much the same tracks as real storms do.

They also found that the model predicted fairly closely the number of North Atlantic hurricanes over the past 25 years – with 162 predicted storms, as opposed to 143 recorded. The strength of the most severe storms was not predicted, however.

Next they fed the model predictions of how Atlantic waters are likely to warm with climate change.

These were based on an ensemble of climate models in which emissions rise until mid-century, then start to taper off – an optimistic scenario for future carbon-dioxide emissions. Though emissions drop off, the ocean would continue warming through the end of the century and beyond.
Fewer hurricanes

Surprisingly, the model simulated fewer tropical storms as the ocean warmed, and fewer hurricanes. By the end of this century, it predicted, the Atlantic will see a drop in tropical storms of 27%, and a drop in hurricanes of 18%.

"This study does not support the idea there is a large increasing trend [in hurricanes] due to greenhouse warming," says Knutson.

The model also predicted that the fewer hurricanes that do emerge will become slightly stronger on average, but Knutson is cautious about this finding. "We don't want to take it quantitatively too seriously because it's not simulating stronger storms very well," he says.

Nonetheless, he adds, "it gives more support to the idea that in the tropics in general, hurricanes will be slightly more intense and have more rainfall."

Other researchers are sceptical about drawing any big conclusions from the study, pointing to the fact that the model did not produce any really strong hurricanes, of category four or five, in either the 20th century or in the coming century.
Low resolution

This "is a major shortcoming," says Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, US.

"In this study there is a suggestion that the strongest storms increase, but the model never simulates them in the first place," Trenberth says. "It could be grossly in error for the strongest storms, which are the ones that do most damage."

Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, US agrees. "My only reservation is that the model's spatial resolution is still too low to allow for intense hurricanes," she says.

In a recent study with higher resolution, but simpler models, Emanuel and colleagues also found an increase in hurricanes' intensities in the northern hemisphere.

Journal reference: Nature Geoscience (DOI: 10.1038/ngeo202)

Offline fajwat

  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • *
  • Posts: 9115
  • Cthulu saves souls for tasty midnight binges.
You have no idea how much mileage I've gotten out of "My friend calls it a convenient truth."
"If it were up to me I would close Guantánamo not tomorrow but this afternoon... Essentially, we have shaken the belief that the world had in America's justice system... and it's causing us far more damage than any good we get from it."

-Colin Powell

Offline nacho

  • Hallowed are the Ori.
  • Walter The Farting Dog
  • You're a kitty!
  • *****
  • Posts: I am a geek!!
    • GS
You have no idea how much mileage I've gotten out of "My friend calls it a convenient truth."

Cool summers and warm winters?  What more could a native Washingtonian ask for?

Offline RottingCorpse

  • Old Timer
  • You're a kitty!
  • ***
  • Posts: 23583
  • We got this by the ass!
    • http://www.lonniemartin.com
I'm with Nacho here. 60s and 70s all summer? Perfect.

Offline fajwat

  • Wee Bin Hoker
  • *
  • Posts: 9115
  • Cthulu saves souls for tasty midnight binges.
See?  I bet that "convenient truth" line has gotten me laid.  It's that lovable.
"If it were up to me I would close Guantánamo not tomorrow but this afternoon... Essentially, we have shaken the belief that the world had in America's justice system... and it's causing us far more damage than any good we get from it."

-Colin Powell