Post reply

Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 300 days.
Unless you're sure you want to reply, please consider starting a new topic.

Note: this post will not display until it's been approved by a moderator.

Message icon:

Type the letters shown in the picture
Listen to the letters / Request another image

Type the letters shown in the picture:
What is Nacho's Twitter handle? (e.g. @xxxx - this is case sensitive)):

shortcuts: hit alt+s to submit/post or alt+p to preview

Topic Summary

Posted by: nacho
« on: November 28, 2007, 01:31:47 PM »

Yeah, but Tornadoes are fun.  What's the worst that can happen now that we all know we have the power to go home whenever we want.

"Welcome to Munchkinland!"

"Fuck!"  *tap, tap, tap*
Posted by: Nubbins
« on: November 28, 2007, 01:25:36 PM »

Meanwhile idiots on the Science channel are trying to drive a 14,000 pound tank-car into the center of a tornado.
Posted by: Reginald McGraw
« on: November 28, 2007, 01:24:31 PM »

I'm a bit more cynical, I suppose.

I take the approach that they spit out disaster and destruction because it gives them exposure, thus funding for their research, thus continued employment.
Posted by: nacho
« on: November 28, 2007, 01:19:45 PM »

Well, now the test.  Will it be the bloodthirsty Worst EVAR!!! prediction, or will we actually get a realistic prediction?  I think they were so excited by Katrina because it gave them new stuff to study, so it's been two years of wishful thinking.
Posted by: Reginald McGraw
« on: November 28, 2007, 01:02:22 PM »

Most of the country is in the same boat. 

We'll see what they think 2008 will look like after the 7th.

Does it matter what they think?  They're always wrong!
Posted by: nacho
« on: November 28, 2007, 11:34:50 AM »

Most of the country is in the same boat. 

We'll see what they think 2008 will look like after the 7th.
Posted by: Nubbins
« on: November 28, 2007, 11:31:23 AM »

Man, I know it's horrible to say this, but we miss the active hurricane seasons up here right about now.  It's clear that one of the main sources of rain for us are the hurricanes that hit Florida and other parts of the Southeast every year... we could use a nice series of hurricanes or tropical depressions.
Posted by: nacho
« on: November 28, 2007, 11:23:30 AM »

And, finally, everyone starts to back down.

As this year's hurricane season nears its end, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team that predicted an active season now says it was not.

William Gray and Philip Klotzbach describe it as near-average with 14 named storms rather than the 17 they predicted for the season that ends Friday.

Only three of the storms made landfall in the United States.

It is the second year in a row for a less active than predicted hurricane season.

Scratching their heads:

As forecasters prepare for the season's end on Friday, they are pondering a new climate puzzle.

The Atlantic basin experienced nearly as many named storms as in the record 2004 season. And yet, at least for the coastal United States, it was one of the quietest seasons in three decades.

Half of the 14 storms lasted one day or less -- defying all predictions. And the majority, with the exception of twin Category-5s that barreled south in the Caribbean, spun away from land.

With the average storm stretching a mere 2.3 days, this year marked the lowest ratio of storm days per storm since 1977.

"We had two Category 5 hurricanes and 12 really kind of pathetic storms," said Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University's forecasting team. "They were short-lived and didn't do very much. That pretty much sums up the season."

An unexpected pocket of heavy wind shear tore apart many of the storms before they could become hurricanes. But forecasters have yet to figure out why the shear increased -- especially in a year when a La Niņa pattern was expected to break it up.

One of the leading theories at the Climate Prediction Center in Miami is that unusual monsoon patterns in the eastern part of the world had something to do with it. The idea is that a weakened La Niņa could be linked to cooler temperatures and heavier rains in the east, but scientists are still in the early stages of their investigation.

"This was a situation where a lot of things were favorable for tropical cyclones to form," said Gerry Bell. "Something else was going on in the climate."

Wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean grew fierce in early September, tearing apart tropical storms Melissa, Ingrid and Jerry, and even Hurricane Karen, before they approached land. Hurricane Humberto, which intensified faster than any other storm on record, lasted only about six hours and quickly turned into a tropical depression over Texas.

Shear refers to the way wind blows at different speeds and in different directions at various levels in the atmosphere. Tropical storms can only strengthen if the shear is light, meaning the winds are fairly uniform with increasing height, allowing the delicate eye-structure to develop.

"Especially in the eastern Atlantic, where the major hurricanes tend to form, they just got sheared to death," Klotzbach said.

Even so, September brought eight named storms -- the most of any September on record.

Forecasters predicted an above-average season -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was an 85 percent chance -- but it turned out to be "near normal."

Of the 14 named storms, six were hurricanes, including Karen, which was upgraded after post-storm reanalysis by the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters expected up to 17 named storms and around 8 hurricanes.

For the second year in a row, hurricanes avoided Florida, setting off more concern among emergency management officials that residents will be less likely to prepare next year. The season has also served as a reminder that forecasting is an uncertain science.

Scientists were initially driven by belief that this is a high-hurricane era, and by the expected development of La Niņa, which is supposed to make the environment friendly to hurricanes.

The high wind shear was not the only surprise. Forecasters downgraded predictions midseason after realizing that sea-surface temperatures were cooler in the eastern Atlantic than they thought. At about 85 degrees, the water was still about 2.5 degrees cooler than in 2005 -- a slight difference thought to play a significant role in formation of hurricanes, which feed off warm water.

And they still have not figured out what happened in October. Usually the month brings storms out of the Caribbean, but only one came: Hurricane Noel, which lasted a single day.

Last year, forecasters were caught off guard by El Niņo, which creates an unfavorable climate for hurricanes, and clouds of African dust thought to be either suffocating hurricanes or blocking the sun and forcing the water to cool.

The National Hurricane Center will release a verification of its forecast Thursday. The Colorado State University team released its summary Tuesday.

"Every year you pick up something new," Klotzbach said. "When you have a bad forecast you learn even more."

Almost 200 people died this year from Atlantic basin hurricanes, mostly during Hurricanes Felix and Dean. At least 133 deaths were reported from Hurricane Felix, which hit Nicaragua and Honduras in September. Hurricane Dean killed 42 people and caused an estimated $4 billion in damage. Hurricane Lorenzo caused five deaths in Mexico.

The most deadly hurricane to hit the U.S. coast this year was Hurricane Humberto, which killed one person and cost an estimated $500 million in damage when it hit Texas. Tropical Storm Erin, whose strong winds and heavy rain across Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma, is thought to have killed 18 people.
Posted by: nacho
« on: October 29, 2007, 11:31:42 AM »

Noel!  And it's a big snore.
Posted by: nacho
« on: October 14, 2007, 07:36:41 AM »

Oh, I got excited.  I thought we were having hurricanes again.  Let's move on to the 2008 Kansas Tornado thread.  Of the 1947 Texas City Explosion thread.
Posted by: Cassander
« on: October 14, 2007, 02:16:24 AM »

feh.  support your local gulf coast citizens and vote AGAINST Hurricane whomever
Posted by: nacho
« on: October 02, 2007, 09:35:56 AM »

And nothing she does.
Posted by: nacho
« on: October 01, 2007, 10:16:23 AM »


Expected to do nothing.
Posted by: nacho
« on: September 28, 2007, 08:21:14 PM »

Tropical Depression 14 announced.  Ah, three at once.  Though one is blowing itself out and the other is totally gay.
Posted by: nacho
« on: September 28, 2007, 10:41:08 AM »

Karen, still far out, is expected to take a turn next week towards the Bahamas... Plenty of time for her to go nuts, even though she has weakened considerably.

TS Lorenzo formed quietly and crashed into Mexico and is now dying.