Great Society

Taken for Granite => Intensive Porpoises => Topic started by: nacho on March 01, 2020, 09:37:40 AM

Title: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 01, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
So...now we're getting worried about coronavirus. Riots in China and Korea, clinics being burned, people suspected of the virus being killed. All this largely going unreported.

I'm fascinated about how several Youtube-based info folks are claiming that their subscribers are being unsubscribed by Youtube. Both Medcram and Peak Prosperity have claimed this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVQC1hAYZBs).

Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 02, 2020, 09:52:09 PM
I'm weirdly convinced it's either network fear-mongering for post-impeachment ratings or there's a real cover-up because this is a Captain Trips level bug.


EDIT on 3/24/2020

I'm adding all the links that seem to update here so we have an easy place to check in without scrolling through a bunch of pages. Let me know if there's one you want me to add:

CDC Coronavirus Info:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/index.html

Johns Hopkins Global Data Updates
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html

17-Year Old Kid's Case Data crunch that Throne Maiden says is filled with malware, but still keeps good numbers.
https://ncov2019.live/data

Worldometer Case Numbers
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 09, 2020, 12:27:41 PM
Man, the Coronavirus freakout has permeated all aspects of internet life. My wife, currently getting over a cold, will not leave the house.

3.4% fatality rate. Stock market drops almost 2,000 points. Events all over the world getting cancelled. Feels very much like the first few chapters of The Stand. It's like somebody's trying to destabilize the entire world. I wonder who!

My outlook is weirdly hopeful. We need a good purge. It's shining light on a myriad of social issues that need fixing, and most of that 3.4% will be old people who refuse to lighten their grip on the world they continue to fuck up. (Read: Trump voters.) Bring on Captain Trips, says I.

Weird that Russia doesn't seem to be affected. Sure, they're probably lying about numbers the same way China also probably is. Still weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on March 10, 2020, 11:25:20 AM
Just to stoke the fires a bit.  Per The Guardian...
Quote
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Per the NY Times via The Daily podcast - the drop in the stock market had was triggered by three things.  Coronavirus, The Grand Idiot in the White House, and mostly the Saudi's pumping a ton of oil into the market with them claiming they are going to ramp up production even more.

Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 10, 2020, 04:53:17 PM
So is this the official GS Coronavirus thread? Asking because I really don't trust any of the news outlets and the CDC hasn't updated anything for a bit.

In other news, I drank 3 bottles of hand sanitizer last night, so I should be good for a day or two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 10, 2020, 09:56:11 PM
So is this the official GS Coronavirus thread? Asking because I really don't trust any of the news outlets and the CDC hasn't updated anything for a bit.

Split this off from the Death Flu thread, so this now *is*  the official GS Coronavirus thread.

The Federal response on this has been awful because Trump's administration is far more worried about political fallout than a functional government. There's a great Twitter thread I read which listed all the things his administration has done to neuter an effective response to this. (Defunding HHS and CDC, firing the guys who keeps SARS, MERS, and Ebola from doing much damage, putting his political interests above public safety, etc, etc, etc.)

The state response in WV is basically, "Go about your lives." There's very much an "out of sight, out of mind" mentality. Our governor isn't too bright himself.

Here's what I'm seeing on the ground in small town West Virginia which as of this writing has zero (0) reported cases. However, that's only because the only testing facility in the state is in Charleston. (And it didn't even exist until about 48 hours ago.).

Life in my small town is "business as usual," though on the street level there's a lot of conversation and some low-level panic. I had lunch Monday with the guy who runs the Augusta Heritage Festival, a pretty big, month long celebration of Appalachian arts with workshops, concerts, and other events. It's been around for years. People come form all over the country (and internationally) to attend. Add of last Friday, they were set to break attendance records. He was pulling in dozens of reservations per day. Over the weekend, reservations dwindled down to virtually zero. This was after the SXSW cancellation. Hand sanitizer and hand soap are both sold out all over town.

The small college I work at sent an email Sunday telling anybody sick not to come on campus or back from spring break . There's rumors of shutting down for two weeks. We have a faculty assembly meeting tomorrow and I'm sure it will be discussed. WVU & Marshall set the tone for what all these small WV liberal arts colleges do, so I'm sure my institution will just follow suit. A lot of students are sick, but the flu has already been pretty bad.

You can feel the undertone of fear though. It's palpable. I told my students to not come to class if they're really sick, and to go see the nurse. We'll figure out getting their class work covered.

Much of my research into Coronavirus is along the lines of what Sirharles is saying; that the fatality rate in the U.S. is likely much lower due to the amount of people who have yet to be tested. And that under the age of 60, the fatality rate isn't much worse than the regular flu. That 3.4 percent is almost exclusively older folks. Which we'll all be in a decade or so, right?) The area for concern is that Seattle nursing home in which 50% of the patients died once it got in there. It's quick. These old people go from no symptoms to dead in the space of 24 hours.

I shared this on FB recently. It give a really great overview of the science of how the virus works and why it's so deadly to folks with lung and cardio vascular issues.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTYfke545vI

To be fatalist (because what's more OG GS than that?), the reasons for possible concern are three-fold:

1.) Pandemic to Endemic... That this basically becomes like the common cold and never goes away, but becomes a thing that we just have... which if I assume enough people survive, our bodies will build antibodies for?

2.) Autumn of Terror ... We've all become experts on the 1918 Spanish Flu over the past few days, right? Infection rates went down over the summer only for it to come back hard when weather got cold in the fall. Most of the 675,000 deaths were in this second wave. There's a fear that Coronavirus will lay dormant during the summer then come back hard.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html)

3.) Mutation... The mutation fear on this one is huge because it's such a tenacious little fucker anyway. Again, Middle aged bogeys like us are probably just going get a pretty bad flu and recover. But if it mutates and gets stronger, it could be problematic. Thankfully it's a virus, so antibiotic resistance is a moot point. Still, if it mutates heavily before somebody comes up with a vaccine, it could do some serious damage and become endemic.

I have no idea what I'm supposed to do with any of this information since I live in a country with such a large vacuum of leadership. On one level, the idea of a quarantine seems silly with nobody in my area all that sick, but isn't the point of a quarantine to keep the disease from spreading?

I'll try to dig up some links for some of the shit I mentioned above. It's all come through on Twitter.

In other news, I drank 3 bottles of hand sanitizer last night, so I should be good for a day or two.

I just got back from Louisville where i bought a few bottles of *very* expensive and high proof bourbon so I'm hoping that keeps me clean. My liver will never get Coronavirus. Jury is still out on the rest of me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 08:15:46 AM
Just to stoke the fires a bit.  Per The Guardian...
Quote
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Per the NY Times via The Daily podcast - the drop in the stock market had was triggered by three things.  Coronavirus, The Grand Idiot in the White House, and mostly the Saudi's pumping a ton of oil into the market with them claiming they are going to ramp up production even more.



Now, my problem is that we're not testing. We're obsessed with the numbers (either proving it's a much larger threat or insisting it's a much lower threat), but how can we know the numbers if we're only testing 3-5% of the population? Some of the "OMG, the flu kills more people" deaths could be linked to corona and lime.


So is this the official GS Coronavirus thread? Asking because I really don't trust any of the news outlets and the CDC hasn't updated anything for a bit.

In other news, I drank 3 bottles of hand sanitizer last night, so I should be good for a day or two.

Yes! I remain hooked on the Peak Prosperity channel, though he's starting to fall apart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 08:17:59 AM
BTW, RC -- Russia is reporting on the virus. They've banned large events and shut down public transport. Russia's figures seem like they're lying because they were actually prepared. They have plenty of test kits and have shut down all the common paths for community infection. Something we (and many other nations) should have done. Russia is also enforcing a draconian rule of self-isolation for anyone returning from out of the country. If you do not self isolate for two weeks, they are imprisoning people.

So Russia went right for Act 2 of The Stand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 11, 2020, 08:32:07 AM
Russia's figures seem like they're lying because they were actually prepared.

Bolshevik!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 08:35:38 AM
Quote
1.) Pandemic to Endemic... That this basically becomes like the common cold and never goes away, but becomes a thing that we just have... which if I assume enough people survive, our bodies will build antibodies for?

2.) Autumn of Terror ... We've all become experts on the 1918 Spanish Flu over the past few days, right? Infection rates went down over the summer only for it to come back hard when weather got cold in the fall. Most of the 675,000 deaths were in this second wave. There's a fear that Coronavirus lay dormant during the summer then come back hard.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

3.) Mutation... The mutation fear on this one is huge because it's such a tenacious little fucker anyway. Again, Middle aged bogeys like us are probably just going get a pretty bad flu and recover. But if it mutates and gets stronger, it could be problematic. Thankfully it's a virus, so antibiotic resistance is a moot point. Still, if it mutates heavily before somebody comes up with a vaccine, it could do some serious damage and become endemic.

So this is really how the flu behaves. This is why you have to keep getting flu shots -- the flu mutates season by season, with two distinct waves each year. This is normal evolution for a virus. And, yes, Coronavirus will do the same, because it's learning. SARS and MERS didn't have the mutation capability (or, at least, not in a way that our bodies noticed or cared about). But this one does. So, even if someone does come up with a vaccine, it's pointless. Just like the flu vaccine. It's outdated by the next season, and, due to the large numbers of vaccine that has to be made, they have to guess what the next mutation is going to look like when they issue the following season's vaccine.  The current flu vaccine only has 60-70% effectiveness. Something like coronavirus, if they develop a vaccine, will be a much smaller percentage. Even with a vaccine, you'll probably still have a 50/50 chance of getting the virus.

The virus has one job: To mutate each season. Some learn how to do this and can be deadly, some can't. And the mutation has to be on many levels. It can become more deadly, but then that's no good if it can't up the transmission rates. Right now it's got longevity down. It can ride a host for days or even weeks, and live outside the host for days. But the symptoms aren't severe. Healthy adults just feel like they have a cold. So what we need to watch aren't the number of infections, or the death rate, or quarantine numbers, but the number of hospitalizations. (Side note here -- most countries are not ready for more than a few dozen critical cases. So the hospitals will be swamped at fairly low numbers. I think, in the US, it's under 100.)

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 11, 2020, 08:54:29 AM
See, you make it all sound like it's much ado about nothing, which other than the fact that the entire fucking world seems utterly and completely out of their minds over this, has sort of been my view. That is until I read the next fear-mongering piece and have a panic attack.

What gives me true pause is that Washington state nursing home, man. Read the details. It's like somebody fucking mustard-gassed the place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/as-coronavirus-quietly-spread-a-nondescript-nursing-home-became-the-deadliest-hot-spot-in-the-us/2020/03/06/5d788a26-5f47-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 09:02:15 AM
See, you make it all sound like it's much ado about nothing, which other than the fact that the entire fucking world seems utterly and completely out of their minds over this, has sort of been my view. That is until I read the next fear-mongering piece and have panic attack.

What gives me true pause is that Washington state nursing home, man. Read the details. It's like somebody fucking mustard-gassed the place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/as-coronavirus-quietly-spread-a-nondescript-nursing-home-became-the-deadliest-hot-spot-in-the-us/2020/03/06/5d788a26-5f47-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html

Very old people, very young people, and people with underlying conditions (respiratory or immune) are always more susceptible to viruses. This is true for all viruses, including the common cold and the flu. Covid-19 is more robust and deadly when working through those people.

I certainly don't think this is much ado about nothing, for the record. I think it's about to explode. I think it's about to start taking out healthy people once it gets its hooks in a major community spread. And so do most officials, which is why everyone is cancelling meetings and events, and large groups are being banned. All of that is an attempt to encourage Covid to peter out. If it can't get a hold of everyone at a football game and is stuck in isolated communities, then it'll burn itself out.

And, yes, it'll come back in the fall, but we'll know it's coming, we may have that 50/50 vaccine, and we'll be ready with test kits and prep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 09:10:34 AM
Also a fun fact -- those who have had it and recovered are immune. So Covid isn't any sort of wild animal running around like the media insists. We can and are developing antibodies, as per usual. It's again all about the infection rate. It probably is a 3-4% death rate, which is much higher than the flu and also much higher than the 1918 pandemic (Spanish Flu was 1%, officially).

So if Covid does start clustering in a serious way -- like if there was an outbreak at something like, say, SXSW -- then it could do some real damage. So the question is how effective is our containment? Russia went right for hardcore containment, but normal countries can't do that.

All the Spanish Flu numbers, by the way, should be taken with a grain of salt. We need to remember that that outbreak happened 7000 years ago and things like the CDC, the WHO, and knowing not to lick open wounds on corpses didn't exist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 11, 2020, 12:59:03 PM
All the Spanish Flu numbers, by the way, should be taken with a grain of salt. We need to remember that that outbreak happened 7000 years ago and things like the CDC, the WHO, and knowing not to lick open wounds on corpses didn't exist.

That made me laugh.

The big issue that keeps coming up is how woefully unprepared the U.S. health system is for this. The current problem isn't the ability to test for COVID-19, but the supply chain of all the things needed to perform the test.

Quote
Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 01:06:59 PM
Riots have started!

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/local/police-responding-report-large-crowd-campus/iitOG3z311QvsCFzdq4CrI/

Ha, ha.

Meanwhile, German health officials, as they roll out tests, are estimating their numbers to skyrocket to two-thirds of the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 11, 2020, 01:46:34 PM
File under “the sky is blue,” but WHO just declared Coronavirus a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2020, 01:59:49 PM
File under “the sky is blue,” but WHO just declared Coronavirus a pandemic.

A little late.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 11, 2020, 04:04:11 PM
Aren’t I always a little late, though?

Read the whole article below, but the estimates are 1/3 of the country will catch it. 80% of those cases will be mild.

Quote
Congressional doctor predicts 70-150 million U.S. coronavirus cases

https://www.axios.com/congressional-physician-predicts-75-150-million-us-coronavirus-cases-fec69e77-1515-4fbc-8340-c53b65c22c53.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 12, 2020, 10:50:19 AM
This tweet thread is sobering...

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 12, 2020, 05:49:06 PM
Some links that have helped me stave off panic attacks in the last 24 hours in the hope it can do so for others.

This is a lengthy but very well researched article on the statistics of infection that *seems* to be getting continuously updated. If it's a tl;dr situation for you, the ultimate thesis is that social distancing works.
Quote
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

There was a twitter thread on what to do if you get actually get sick, but it seems to have disappeared. Instead here's the CDC site:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/index.html

I've heard to treat it like a cold or flu, stay hydrated, and get plenty of rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 13, 2020, 10:43:44 AM
Social distancing should be what we do all the time. We're disgusting creatures. I want handshakes to go away forever.

My Italian friend reports that the hospitals have crashed and bodies are not being collected at houses (and on the street). Just to re-instill the panic!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 13, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
Oh, well if panic is the order of the day:

Quote
The Dismantled State Takes on a Pandemic

https://newrepublic.com/article/156901/dismantled-state-takes-pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 13, 2020, 03:33:51 PM
This is so fucking bad.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 13, 2020, 03:58:51 PM
This is so fucking bad.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-

Link is dead for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 13, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Trump's half an hour late for his martial law speech so I'm going to the bar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 13, 2020, 04:45:15 PM
Peak prosperity has been talking a lot about censorship and other shenanigans. RC's link above was removed in minutes. So, new rule: if you link a source that's not national media, copy and paste the contents into this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 13, 2020, 08:05:05 PM
So...I love how the media says it's all fine, we're all good, and..... Chicago hospitals are crashing and setting up triage centers in public parking garages.

Um...?

That from tonight's NBC nightly news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 14, 2020, 11:13:11 AM
Social distancing should be what we do all the time. We're disgusting creatures. I want handshakes to go away forever.

My Italian friend reports that the hospitals have crashed and bodies are not being collected at houses (and on the street). Just to re-instill the panic!

Italy is finally officially confirming this. They say they're going to crash in one week, but my on the street folks say they have already crashed. Probably the truth is somewhere in the middle, but the government saying the crash is imminent is sobering.

And, of course, we have the images of the mass graves in Iran...where we have no idea what the kill ratio is at the moment. And rumors persist, and veiled reporting, that Chicago area hospitals are about to hit capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 14, 2020, 02:34:13 PM
Peak prosperity has been talking a lot about censorship and other shenanigans. RC's link above was removed in minutes. So, new rule: if you link a source that's not national media, copy and paste the contents into this thread.

Yeah, that was a mishap on my part. It was supposedly notes from an expert panel at the UCSF Academy of Medical Educators, which seems to at last have a legit website:

https://www.ucsf.edu (https://www.ucsf.edu)

The notes were posted rom an attendee of a panel, and either it got shut down or the guy was widely criticized for fear-mongering and pulled it. I found the notes on Reddit though. Apocalyptic.

Quote
Published By Dr. Jordan Shlain, M.D.

University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19
March 10, 2020

Panelists Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic. Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist. Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist. Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc

What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

Top takeaways At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed. How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows. We are moving from containment to care. We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different. 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population. [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]

The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu. This assumes no drug is found effective and made available. The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]

Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year. What should we do now? What are you doing for your family? Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset). How long does the virus last? On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based. Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places. We have cancelled business travel. Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face. Stockpile your critical prescription medications. Many pharma supply chains run through China. Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing. Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous. Get a flu shot next fall. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous. We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines. We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes. Then are not letting them out of the house. The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in. Three routes of infection Hand to mouth / face Aerosol transmission Fecal oral route What if someone is sick? If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate. There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home. Most cases are mild. But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
 
If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER. There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19. The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease. ie to prevent sepsis. If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China. Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll. Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19. If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines. [More I found online.] Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults? Your immune system declines past age 50 Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness. These conditions are higher in older adults.

Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.

What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?

Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful. Here’s why. Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test. No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”. A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA. However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives. The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits. While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing. The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day. For the nation. Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.” And certification. ie it won’t happen soon. UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits. But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day. And are not clinically certified. Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger. How well is society preparing for the impact? Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak. UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot. They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus. They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility. If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities. But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected. School closures are one the biggest societal impacts. We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects. If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services. Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis. They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months. Other solutions will have to be found. What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months? Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed. Kids home due to school closures [Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office. When he returned we asked what the call covered.] The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action. The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions. ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.

Where do you find reliable news? The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site. Which posts daily updates. The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email. [I tried and the page times out due to high demand. After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.] The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.

Here's the link to the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security which *is* legit and has some great information.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/index.html (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 14, 2020, 03:22:11 PM
This is fantastic. (Almost) realtime aggregated updates of infection data.

https://ncov2019.live/data (https://ncov2019.live/data)

And it was created by a 17-year-old kid.

Quote
Updated every minute, 17-year-old whiz kid’s coronavirus site used by millions

https://www.timesofisrael.com/updated-every-minute-17-year-old-whiz-kids-coronavirus-site-used-by-millions/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/updated-every-minute-17-year-old-whiz-kids-coronavirus-site-used-by-millions/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 15, 2020, 11:59:36 AM
The Throne Maiden warns that the scuttlebutt is that that kid's site is loaded with malware and can't be trusted.

But, then, we are in the midst of disinformation with this crisis. Which makes it ten times more terrifying for me.

Meanwhile, the economic impact is already resoundingly apocalyptic on a personal level with me. I had one book come out this month that will now see a huge spike in returns due to cancelled events and conferences. What is normally a 10% return rate is already at 40%, and that will climb. All events for that book through may were cancelled last week. We may see a 70-80% return rate, which is how small presses go bankrupt. Three other books coming out in May see pre-orders at only 50% what they should be this month so far.

I lost all our subrights conventions (London, Beijing, Frankfurt). If BEA and the NY rights fair go down, then I'll be out thousands (maybe tens of thousands) with no way to recover it.

AWP was a massive hit. A total disaster.

Even if the course corrects itself within four weeks, it'll take me till next spring to dig out from this. And if we continue through June, like all the experts are saying, I may have to start cancelling or postponing future contracts. And, god, what is this doing to the smaller presses...? Some of them spend all year just saving up for AWP.

So, while it seems logical that the virus would be good for folks who want to sit home and read books, it's actually not because the entire small press world is reliant on activity and motion -- events, conferences, fairs, etc. Getting the word out via social media and elsewhere is near impossible when there are 3-4 million books published every year.

Ahem...anyway, tell all your friends to support me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 15, 2020, 12:51:01 PM
The Throne Maiden warns that the scuttlebutt is that that kid's site is loaded with malware and can't be trusted.

But, then, we are in the midst of disinformation with this crisis. Which makes it ten times more terrifying for me.

The numbers/data on the kid's site seems sound to me. Thats said, this whole situation seems a hacker's paradise. It wouldn't surprise me if somebody got in there and futzed around. Did you hear about infection maps that were malware infested? Anyway, I've clicked on the kid's site at east five times, so any damage is done on my decrepit MacBook.

Meanwhile, the economic impact is already resoundingly apocalyptic on a personal level with me.

I'm sorry to hear about that. I've read a couple pieces about how the economic impact of this will be with us far longer than the health emergency. If I were you, I would assume the worst case financial scenario and do everything you can to mitigate the effects of it. If it means making bold cuts (such as postponing future contracts), do it. Shrink SFWP back down. Survival is the name of the game right now. Not profit.

I tried to get Missus RC to talk about the long term financial possibilities (including the worst case scenario), but she was reluctant to engage. ("Too soon," she said.) I did a quick look at our finances with the assumption that one or both of us are possibly no longer employed come August. (One of the reasons my employer dragged their feet so long before making a call about going online were the not-so-far reaching economic implications. It takes only a minority percentage of students asking for refunds on room and board to shut us down.) It's not great, but we're likely better off than a lot of people.

Be planning and thinking financially in the long term even as you focus on not getting sick in the short term. Again, plan for the worst. Even if it doesn't come to fruition.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 15, 2020, 01:07:41 PM
It's hard to plan for the worst when you're part of the gig economy. When I was getting a paycheck, I could plan for the worst by putting a percentage aside. But now I'm in a volatile, unpredictable business and can't create gentle cushions to land on. I have plenty of safety nets in place, but the other problem is that, when this blows over, the recovery is going to take a year, probably starting at that point. Because this is also a seasonal economy I've embraced.

The last two weeks have used up half my safety nets. The next 4-6 weeks, if things don't change, will use up the rest.

It's hard to plan ahead when all your plans are based on whether or not someone will buy a book. And as everyone else tightens their belts, they're not going to be as supportive as useful. In fact, an environment where people need to be told to plan ahead and think financially in the long term is exactly the sort of environment that can shut me down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 15, 2020, 01:18:14 PM
I was part of that gig economy once and I certainly feel you. It was always kind of feast or famine and very hard to create any kind of cushion.

Can you pay your bills for six months? That was always the freelance cushion I was taught to have; prepare for what happens if you don't work for six months. I was very rarely there as a freelancer. (Usually, I was closer to two months.)

I'm the last guy to take business advice from, but I highly suggest shrinking your overhead costs as much as possible. Again, assume your sales are going to continue to drop drastically. Don't try to function at the level you're functioning. Cut the flow of money going out. Yes, this means shrinking your business, but it also means you can match how much you're spending more closely to how much you're making. Everything in our economic life is going on hold, so you should go on hold too. I imagine you'll have make a couple of very hard choices, but make them.

I realize it's easy for me to sit over here and make suggestions when people are simply buying far less of your product than they were a few weeks ago. What I'm saying is (if it's possible) don't let the business siphon off money from you just trying to keep the lights burning as bright as they are. Mothball parts of the house until the storm passes with the understanding that the storm may indeed destroy those mothballed wings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 15, 2020, 04:35:11 PM
I paid for all the print runs two weeks ago, so too late to scale back. All the money got dumped and now is the cool down period. So...horrible timing.

Restaurants are starting to close. Larry Hogan just said that it's "a crime" if any bars hold a St. Patrick's Day celebration.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 15, 2020, 07:46:11 PM
Italy's at a 10% death rate. It's starting to spike elsewhere. And, here, bars and stores are starting to close in my neighborhood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 15, 2020, 07:51:47 PM
Rural WV is acting like nothing's the matter. Though I had to go to my office earlier to get stuff I forgot and there was a particularly eerie quiet for a Sunday afternoon. I didn't see any people while I was out and I literally had a Clorox wipe in each hand for any door handle I had to touch. When I came back, Missus RC  helped me clean stuff and myself as if I were coming back from a spacewalk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 16, 2020, 09:55:10 AM
Okay, so all our Bethesda Row restaurants and bars are limited seating, with all parking spots cordoned off and reserved for curbside pickup of food. I'll take a wander later today and see if I can get some pics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 16, 2020, 12:34:34 PM
Wow...


https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-maryland-virginia-schools-closed-monday-as-coronavirus-cases-hit-94/2242447/

Quote
Maryland will shut down all bars, restaurants, movie theaters and gyms at 5 p.m. Monday to stop the spread of coronavirus, the governor says.

The state will also ban all gatherings of more than 50 people, Gov. Larry Hogan said.

Restaurants can offer carryout and drive-thru service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 16, 2020, 01:25:11 PM
We're ten days behind Italy as far as numbers go. I'll be happy have the argument that we over-reacted, but I don't think that's it.

This is is a FB post from my friend who's a nurse at the local hospital here in north central WV.

Quote
Honestly, I've been impressed so far with the lack of swarming to the ED. What truly worries me is when WV does get its first case, how people are going to react. The truth is, we are still a small, rural hospital. We are fully prepared to tackle this virus head on, like we are any other day. However, it will become completely overwhelming to have people report to the ED en mass for the slightest symptom simply out of fear. School closure and social distancing will allow for the virus to slow its spread. This will help us stay ahead of the game. This will allow us to evaluate and manage a smaller number of severely ill people at any given time. We only have so many ventilators and ICU beds. The fact is, most people will only experience mild to moderate symptoms, ranging from influenza-type to pneumonia-type. When you enter the ED with mild symptoms, you will be tested for influenza. And you MAY be tested for corona virus. Chances are, if you are healthy and you have mild symptoms, you will not be. Just as during flu season, we don't always test for the flu. What is ALSO happening when you enter the ED with mild symptoms is you are placing others at risk. Do you have the flu? Do you have COVID-19? Either way, everything you touch and everyone you come into contact with becomes susceptible to transmission of your illness. There is no cure for a virus. A virus lasts 7-21 days in the body, depending on many factors. Symptom management is key. Symptoms can be managed at home until they can't. This means that you take Tylenol for your fever. You take Mucinex and Tussin for your cough. You cough into a tissue and throw it away. You sanitize behind yourself everywhere you go to keep your family safe. If, in the course of the illness, your symptoms develop past the point of being managed at home...your fever will not break with over the counter meds, you are truly unable to catch your breath, your cough becomes so severe that you can't breathe just sitting still, then, please...please come into the ED where we are fully prepared and capable to assess and manage your symptoms. If 1 in every 20 people develop severe symptoms and we only see the truly ill, there is less of a strain on resources, less of the chance that an ED nurse or physician will contract the virus and less of a chance that the elderly lady in the bed next to you who broke her hip will be infected. Please do not let fear drive you. This should be taken seriously, but is nothing over which to panic. Human coronavirus is something our bodies have not encountered before. Rest and hydrate, so that they have the energy to fight it. Let our bodies do their job. Save the ED for the most ill. The knowledge of whether you have COVID-19 is not gong to change the treatment of symptoms, so what does it matter if you're diagnosed? So you can say you had it? There's no prize or accomplishment in being able to say you were officially diagnosed. Stay home. Stay vigilant with keeping your space clean. Stay well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 16, 2020, 01:32:58 PM
I don't think we're over-reacting. In fact, I'd say the Feds have dropped the ball big time. Thank god the States are taking control as best they can (like Maryland's lockdown today).

But then we see shit like the clusterfuck at O'Hare. We've got, what, a million or so Americans in a desperate scramble to get back to the US from abroad and we're only scanning a small portion of them and, when we do, we break the system in 39 seconds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 16, 2020, 02:02:24 PM
I don't think we're over-reacting. In fact, I'd say the Feds have dropped the ball big time. Thank god the States are taking control as best they can (like Maryland's lockdown today).

But then we see shit like the clusterfuck at O'Hare. We've got, what, a million or so Americans in a desperate scramble to get back to the US from abroad and we're only scanning a small portion of them and, when we do, we break the system in 39 seconds.

I'm very worried about my super-conservative, vaguely ass-backwards state government of poor states like the one I currently live in. Again, lots of business as usual here.

How are you dealing with the mail? We open everything immediately in a very small area. Then we wipe down the area where the mail was opened and wash our hands. I feel totally fucking paranoid and neurotic when I do this, but again... better safe than sorry.

Both my wife and I are expecting to get sick. We've talked a bit about it. Our hope and summation is that we'd get mild cases which wouldn't require us to go to the hospitals. Right now, I haven't heard of any good slid, "Do this at home if you get sick?" All this modern medicine we have and it's really just the lottery of whether your immune system can handle it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 16, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
Heh-heh.

And by "heh-heh," I mean:
:drama!:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cyberattack-hhs-meant-slow-coronavirus-response-sources (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cyberattack-hhs-meant-slow-coronavirus-response-sources)

Quote
Suspicious cyberactivity targeting HHS tied to coronavirus response, sources say
The activity happened Sunday night, sources said.

The Department of Health and Human Services experienced suspicious cyberactivity Sunday night related to its coronavirus response, administration sources confirmed to ABC News Monday.

The suspicious activity HHS was not a hack but it may have been a distributed denial of service -- or DDOS -- attack, according to multiple sources.

The distinction is important because there was no apparent breach of the HHS system, which could interfere with critical functions of the lead agency responding to the coronavirus contagion. A DDOS effort enlists automated users -- called bots -- to overwhelm a public-facing system in order to slow it down or even paralyze it.

Officials believe any coordinated effort against HHS -- if there was one -- was not particularly successful and are satisfied that the system was not significantly affected.

Nevertheless, the concern is that foreign actors might attempt to exploit the COVID-19 crisis to achieve some of their anti-American goals.

“As federal state and local governments focus on handling the current public health crisis, national security officials are also tracking other threats -- in particular those posed by terrorist or extremist groups and foreign adversaries who may seek to take advantage of all of the attention being focused on the coronavirus and conduct an attack,” said John Cohen, a former acting Undersecretary of the Department of Homeland Security and contributor to ABC News.

At this point, analysts are trying to determine the origin of the activity targeting HHS. Officials have told Congress that the intelligence community fears that entities connected to Russia would try to use the current situation to sow even more chaos in the American public.

The FBI declined to comment.

“We are aware of a cyber incident related to the Health and Human Services computer networks and the federal government is investigating this incident thoroughly," NSC spokesman John Ullyot said in the statement. "HHS and federal government cybersecurity professionals are continuously monitoring and taking appropriate actions to secure our federal networks. HHS and federal networks are functioning normally at this time."

Intelligence and cyber officials are investigating to see if there is a connection to Sunday's messages saying there would be a national quarantine instituted, but as of now, they have not linked the two. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the Cyber Security arm of the Department of Homeland Security, is saying it is supporting its government partners, and is highlighting a number of steps that it's taken in previous weeks.

“CISA will continue to support our partners at HHS as they protect their IT systems," CISA spokesperson Sara Sendek said in a statement. "CISA has taken a number of steps over the last several weeks to increase cybersecurity preparedness across federal civilian agencies, including enhanced monitoring, issuing recommendations as agencies shift to telework, and identifying and protecting particularly important systems supporting COVID response efforts. We’re confident that the measures we’ve all put into place are sufficient, and we will stay on the lookout for and defend against malicious activity.”

“HHS has an IT infrastructure with risk-based security controls continuously monitored in order to detect and address cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities. On Sunday, we became aware of a significant increase in activity on HHS cyber infrastructure and are fully operational as we actively investigate the matter. Early on while preparing and responding to COVID-19, HHS put extra protections in place. We are coordinating with federal law enforcement and remain vigilant and focused on ensuring the integrity of our IT infrastructure, HHS spokesperson Caitlin Oakley said in a statement.

The attack was first reported by Bloomberg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 16, 2020, 07:39:24 PM
We are pretty sure we had it and defeated it a few weeks ago.

Maryland is full on Omega Man. Crazy times here.

We don't give a fuck about the mail. You can't stop it like that. You got it the moment you picked up the mail. Wiping it down after the fact is Dark Ages thinking. That's like licking the corpse and then going home and washing your mouth out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 16, 2020, 07:47:54 PM


We don't give a fuck about the mail. You can't stop it like that. You got it the moment you picked up the mail. Wiping it down after the fact is Dark Ages thinking. That's like licking the corpse and then going home and washing your mouth out.

I'm, frankly, exhausted about the whole approach to hygiene. I mean, the Today Show and the Natonal Nighly News had 10 minute segments on.... HOW TO WASH YOUR HANDS!!!

Is this fucking 1370 AD?

Same thing with the mail. If it was positive, then you got it when you collected the mail. Period. This isn't a bad spirit you can dispel in the mud room with sage and prayer.

And I hear that approach from everyone. Oh, we're ordering from Amazon because that's safe and clean. Oh, we got our groceries delivered because that's safe and clean.

It's the 2020 version of dancing on one foot around the fire and shaking the doll to keep the ancestor spirits away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 16, 2020, 09:29:13 PM
I don't think I can let the mail just pile up in the mailbox for the next four to six months.

I get what's you're saying about transfer points, but if everything they're telling us about how to stop this is wrong, then I'm down with the "herd immunity" UK and all the partying 20-30 year-olds who are like, "Fuck it, I'll roll the dice with my immune system." Somebody tell me "Don't touch anything at all every again," and I'll do it. The problem of course, is that nobody knows what's right or wrong.

I'm not going to live in fear. Twenty days straight of that kind of anxiety and I'll eat one of those bullets I bought a few days ago. Living fearless doesn't mean I'm not self-quarantining and isolating, but this isn't going to be over in three weeks. I'm doubtful it'll be over in four months. Certain breaks in the quarantine are going to be a necessity. It's too late not to get it anyway, right? It's about flattening the curve.

Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 16, 2020, 11:27:52 PM
Nacho just texted me about National Guard boots in the ground in MoCo to enforce bar closures. I came back with a joke about being glad I’m in WV... at least until we’re five days out from grocery store shelves being restocked.

Then I read this:

https://www.wvpublic.org/post/coronavirus-testing-limited-wva-its-population-high-risk-thats-why-we-should-distance

Quote
Coronavirus Testing Is Limited in W.Va., Its Population Is High-Risk. That's Why We Should Distance

One of the reasons coronavirus is so scary is that it is possible to be a carrier for the disease and not know it. Some people are asymptomatic and some people have mild symptoms. But as of Monday, West Virginia has only tested 84 people for coronavirus – out of a state of 1.8 million. Critics say that’s not nearly enough.

If you wanted to check to see if you had coronavirus so you could make sure you’re in the clear before going to visit an elderly relative – could you?

The short answer? No – not in West Virginia, at least.

“So currently, I have enough tests and supplies of everything else for maybe 500 people,” state commissioner for public health Dr. Cathy Slemp said at a Monday news conference.

Slemp said West Virginia has that many coronavirus testing kits only because she was able to make use of resources that would have normally been dedicated otherwise.

“I borrowed extraction kits from my flu testing to fill in to expand my capacity,” she said.

West Virginians aren’t getting widely tested because there simply are not enough supplies to test people -- even nationwide. The state has put in an order for more kits, but supplies are on backorder with no sense of when the order will be fulfilled.

“I'm not stopping flu testing,” Slemp said. “In fact, it's actually really helpful for this because we try to exclude flu before we do COVID testing.”

If someone has the flu, she says it’s highly unlikely they also have coronavirus. But, because supplies are in high demand, for now, the only people who will be tested are those who meet a strict criteria.

In a press release Monday, the DHHR specified tests would be reserved for really sick people already hospitalized with symptoms of coronavirus or people at risk of complications including the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions or people at high risk of having been infected, which includes someone who has been to a current epicenter recently or who has been in contact with an infected person.

The DHHR says that their approach is similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on testing.

But the CDC guidelines have been a point of controversy, with other major public health groups like the World Health Organization saying the U.S. has not gone far enough.

“South Korea, as a country, they tested very broadly,” WVU Health Sciences Vice President and Executive Dean Dr. Clay Marsh said.

Marsh spoke last week with West Virginia Public Broadcasting and explained different approaches — and outcomes — with testing.

“And part of the way that they started to control the infection is — instead of just asking everybody to self-quarantine, if you've had any potential exposure — they started to test a ton of their population. So they actually knew who was infected and who wasn't,” Marsh said. 

“And, optimally, you find that out and you quarantine the people that are infected. You don't quarantine the people who aren't. So that's really a step that we're moving toward, which will allow us, I think, to be much smarter about how we're approaching this from a public health protection standpoint.”

As Marsh points out, South Korea has been lauded for its efficient testing. They made testing free and fast — residents can pull up in their vehicle, get swabbed and then get results usually the next day via text.

South Korea’s death rate is 0.9 percent. In the United States, the rate is 1.7 percent – nearly double.

It’s not just testing supplies that are the problem – it’s that the labs don’t have the technology necessary to test. West Virginia’s state lab wasn’t set up until Saturday, March 7th (tests were sent instead to the CDC in Atlanta) and commercial labs didn’t get going until this week. Some hospitals are also hoping to be able to run their own tests soon but for now are having to send them off to external agencies.

But with supplies on backorder, and few labs to test in, state health agencies say they must focus on testing just those with the highest risk. Even though they believe coronavirus to already be in West Virginia. And, when it comes, it could be catastrophic.

Slemp said West Virginia has a high-risk population because the disease seems to target the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions. A report from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows West Virginia is the most at-risk state, with more than half of adults over 18 at risk of contracting the coronavirus.

She said now is the time to act to prevent a disaster. But that West Virginia likely will not be prioritized to receive supplies because other states have more cases.

“You need to be prioritizing states, not just on numbers of cases -- but on risk. We have a high-risk population. If we don't have a lot right here now that's great. If you send them now, we act now, give a chance to really, really reduce it much more,” Slemp said. “If you're going to just where it's already happening you'll be too late.”

If you can’t test everyone, Slemp said, the only other option is to isolate everyone, reducing risk through contact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 17, 2020, 08:40:18 AM
Not saying let the mail pile up and live in fear. I'm saying it's pointless dark ages thinking to think you're okay if you wash down after you pick up the mail. I mean, yes, you should do that, but that still doesn't make picking up the mail an safe choice. Just like thinking having groceries delivered is safe. It's sort of upstairs/downstairs thinking. The service professionals don't exist in our eyes, therefore they aren't human, therefore they aren't serious vectors of infection. The mailman's okay, the UPS man is okay, the maids are okay. And all that goes on without interruption and very few people are even taking the moderate precautions you are. 

Everyone's going to be exposed eventually. And as that article you link above hints: This is the sort of DNA-based virus that everyone will get and probably has to get.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 17, 2020, 11:39:24 AM
We are pretty sure we had it and defeated it a few weeks ago.

We think Missus RC may have had it as well. She flew back from Costa Rica (an international flight) on February 15. A little over a week later, she started feeling symptoms, thinking it was just a cold. It lasted three weeks, though she still has a cough here and there. We didn't think it was the Coronavirus, because she had a good deal of phlegm, and her temperature never got higher than 98.9. At the same time, she complained often that "this doesn't feel like a regular cold." She also said she felt like someone was "pressing on her chest," particularly her right side. She did say she had trouble breathing and that she particularly felt it on the right.

For all intents and purposes, she's better now. I'm not showing any symptoms other than normal Spring allergies. (I got hit bad with allergies last year, probably because of the WV move.) If she had it, I'm certainly an asymptomatic carrier. Again, if we believe anything, 80% of folks get a mild case or don't show symptoms at all.

Without the ability to test, I feel like it's all moot anyway, if not a wee bit scary. There's really nothing to be done until it gets really bad, and then all they can do is try to keep you alive. A vaccine is a at least a year away.

Good times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 17, 2020, 11:41:59 AM
We are pretty sure we had it and defeated it a few weeks ago.

We think Missus RC may have had it as well. She flew back from Costa Rica (an international flight) on February 15. A little over a week later, she started feeling symptoms, thinking it was just a cold. It lasted three weeks, though she's still has a cough here and there. We didn't think it was the Coronavirus, because she had a good deal of phlegm, and her temperature never got higher than 98.9. At the same time, she complained often that "this doesn't feel like a regular cold." She also said she felt like someone was "pressing on her chest," particularly her right side. She did say she had trouble breathing and that she particularly felt it on the right.



So...exactly the same for us. My fever did spike to 100-101 for two days, then broke. I still have a cough and shortness of breath.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 17, 2020, 03:19:30 PM
Well, this is kinda horrifying.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can refresh and watch the numbers climb in real time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 17, 2020, 04:35:16 PM
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 17, 2020, 04:41:00 PM
Well, this is kinda horrifying.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can refresh and watch the numbers climb in real time.

That's better than the kid's thing for sure. Nacho, can the Throne Maiden tell me if *this* one is emptying my bank account?

I get a bit of solace from that it's still a 4% total fatality rate which is consistent with everything we've seen so far. Again though, we're not testing like we should.

6:00 PM briefing from the WV governor tonight. (He will not be taking questions. Press is not invited... which is something I want to get deeper into at some point.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 17, 2020, 04:52:18 PM
Well, this is kinda horrifying.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can refresh and watch the numbers climb in real time.

That's better than the kid's thing for sure. Nacho, can the Throne Maiden tell me if *this*one is emptying my bank account?

I get a bit of solace from that it's still a 4%  total fatality rate which is consistent with everything we've seen so far. Again, though we're not testing like we should.

6:00 PM briefing from the WV governor tonight. (He will not be taking questions. Press is not invited.., which is something I want to get deeper into at some point.)

I've had it up all day and watched the US totals jump at least 800 cases since this morning. I feel like updates on the testing front are painfully slow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 17, 2020, 05:32:25 PM
That's better than the kid's thing for sure. Nacho, can the Throne Maiden tell me if *this* one is emptying my bank account?

Nobody knows anything anymore. Throne Maiden-land is upside down. They now have ten cases on campus.

Quote
I get a bit of solace from that it's still a 4% total fatality rate which is consistent with everything we've seen so far. Again though, we're not testing like we should.

4% is bad if it runs away infection wise. 1918 was in the 4% range. And our population is five times what it was then.

Quote
6:00 PM briefing from the WV governor tonight. (He will not be taking questions. Press is not invited... which is something I want to get deeper into at some point.)

MD and VA were good about taking questions and having a conversation. So there's still some reasonable people around here at least.

In "my company is doomed" news:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3

Even a couple weeks of this can put me down for good now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 17, 2020, 06:06:05 PM
I've read so many articles about it today, but they all say the same things; social distancing to flatten the curve and construction of more hospitals and manufacturing of more ventilators.

Two interesting articles of note:

This is from MIT (I think?) and it mentions both how we probably want to flatten the curve more than we think we need to, BUT not flatten it so much that we reduce the infection rate so far don't allow people to develop the herd immunity over time. Though I'll take that over Italy.

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough

The second one is more future thinking and are probably better ideas to think about beyond the current crisis. That aside, I agree with it's summation that Covid-19 may be just the beginning in terms of the chaos that could be coming.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-16/coronavirus-foreshadow-s-bigger-disruptions-in-future

In "my company is doomed" news:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3

Even a couple weeks of this can put me down for good now.

I'm not hopeful for government bailouts of small businesses at this point, but my heart is with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 18, 2020, 06:30:37 AM
MonkeyNET reports from France:

Day 2 of Lockdown. I should’ve stocked up more on wine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 18, 2020, 09:43:18 AM
MonkeyNET reports from France:

Day 2 of Lockdown. I should’ve stocked up more on wine.

Yeah, I'm not sure I've taken the booze considerations seriously. I'm mostly a beer drinker and while I can do the Euro warm beer thing, I like it refrigerated which is a space suck when you're also trying to keep mass quantities of food around. I typically get a few four packs from our local brewery about once a week and dole them out. I've been drinking a bourbon on Fridays for the past few months, but fear jumping to that exclusively because, you know, alcoholism. I do have 3-4 bottles of very good bourbon from a recent trip to Kentucky. We have a few bottles of wine, but not enough to last if I switch to that from beer.

Probably another shopping trip in the next couple days to restock booze and food. We're going through our entire pantry and are going to try to plan out meals for the next three weeks to a month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 18, 2020, 10:14:29 AM
Monkey, is it true you're fined if you go outside? How's your business doing?

RC: as for this just being the beginning, yep. That's been the job of the virus since pre-history. It's always looking to mutate and change and get bigger and better. There's the argument that our entire DNA and evolutionary history is based on contracting and fighting viruses. Those of us alive today are the ones who have survived 12,000 years worth of cullings.

But, as of the 20th century, we're sort of resetting ourselves back to square one thanks to vaccinations and a better understanding of what a virus is.

Not an anti-vacc argument! As long as we choose to live in tight-knit, stationary communities, we need vaccinations. But it is a double-edged sword, because the viruses are going to continue to try and find ways in and, once one does, we'll be back to the early cullings (which are the real reason why the hominid tree ended up only having one branch). 

Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 18, 2020, 10:41:47 AM
This is making the rounds today. It's super science-y and using Great Britain as the model, but really breaks down the strategies of mitigation vs. suppression of the virus.

Basically every model is saying the worst is yet to come, and that "flattening the curve" (the phrase we'll all eventually grow to hate) is the only hope we've got right now. Check the appendix which has graphs for the US. They're expecting a 1918 style autumn resurgence with the worst outbreak coming next Christmas. The way I read it, *if* we do everything we're supposed to, we have about eight months to build hospitals, manufacture ventilators, and prepare for the wave that's coming.

"Winter is coming."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

And per the old "post the whole article," I downloaded the PDF... just in case. GS isn't letting me post it, but I can email it to anybody if this goes missing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 18, 2020, 12:28:51 PM
Nacho,

If one ventures outside without having filled out the prerequisite form then, yes - one will be fined and because the French are truculent teenagers the fines looks to be increased because stupid does stupid.

RC, that paper from the Imperial College was based upon the UK’s previously intended response - which was to do nothing - and subsequently Boris Johnson changed policy.

Let’s see how long this thing lasts... and for you Yankee-Doodles without health insurance, you’re fucked and should’ve voted Bernie.

Once again, Thanks, China!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 18, 2020, 12:57:15 PM
Sanders just tapped out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 19, 2020, 06:11:32 AM
Sanders just tapped out!

People are stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 19, 2020, 04:27:47 PM
Maybe it won't be so bad after all.

https://youtu.be/XO6FW1aJkTw
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 21, 2020, 11:32:38 AM
Check-ins?

Life in small town West Virginia seems to carry on mostly as usual, though I haven't been out of the house in a week. Last time I left, t was certainly quieter than usual. I'll likely go for a run today.

A friend of mine is a nurse at the local hospital and has been doing semi-daily updates. The hospital has restricted all visitation, but they don't seem to be seeing an uptick in admissions.... yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 21, 2020, 12:01:47 PM
Italy seems to be losing between 400-600 people per day and Spain looks to be catching up with that trend... whilst France has something like 5000 people in intensive care,  or maybe more - whatever. I’m done to only three bottles of wine and I’m not sure my bottle of Bordeaux is at peak drinking age...

Life is tough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 21, 2020, 12:21:35 PM
My NYC authors say that one person a day is dying. Here in Bethesda, almost everyone has bugged out. It's a ghost town. DC just announced that restaurants, bars, and businesses will be closed till the end of April. No doubt MD will follow suit.

We supplied up for about two weeks last Tuesday. So... We're just over a week from killing the neighbors!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 21, 2020, 02:43:16 PM
Another 800 today in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 22, 2020, 11:13:40 AM
Another 400 in Spain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 22, 2020, 11:25:35 AM
Tenacious little fucker.

Follows the deaths not the cases is advice I read yesterday. (I think it was in a Twitter thread.) testing has been so haphazard that case numbers don’t give an accurate picture. To paraphrase, deaths from this thing are insanely obvious and therefore easier to keep track of. Also, I read a detailed account of what happens when someone dies from it. I’ll see if can dig it up to post but it was fucking awful and basically chased me off the internet for the rest of the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 22, 2020, 12:19:20 PM
Pics, tweets, and links on the click-through, but this is a pretty good assessment of what we know so far of where this ting may have come from.

tl;dr... Wuhan Wet Markets.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/17/covid-19-coronavirus-did-not-come-from-a-lab-study-shows-natural-origins/

Quote
No, COVID-19 Coronavirus Was Not Bioengineered. Here’s The Research That Debunks That Idea

Don’t you just love conspiracy theories? Especially when two groups of people have pretty much the same conspiracy theory about each other?

Some folks including politicians in the U.S. and China have both suggested that the COVID-19 coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) that’s causing the pandemic may actually be a bioweapon that was manufactured in a lab. The only difference between their conspiracy theories is who’s being accused of doing the manufacturing.

On the one corner are some people in the U.S. who are hinting or in some cases openly claiming that China put together this virus. For example, look at what Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) tweeted out back on January 30:

Then, Steve Mosher wrote on February 22 an opinion piece for the New York Post entitled, “Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab.” Take a wild guess at what Mosher wrote about in his piece. By the way, Mosher is not a biomedical scientist, but instead is the president of the Population Research Institute and author of book called Bully of Asia: Why China’s ‘Dream’ Is the New Threat to World Order. So chances are that he didn’t love China in the first place. But who knows, love works in mysterious ways.

So what evidence have Cotton, Mosher, and others provided to support these suggestions or claims? Incriminating pictures? Suspicious emails? Some awkward selfies? Any kind of scientific evidence?

Well, as Cotton picked out, there just happens to be a biosafety level-four (BSL-4) laboratory situated in Wuhan, China, the city where the whole outbreak started. Oh, and the lab had housed some types of coronaviruses among other pathogens. Yep, that’s the evidence.

As you probably know, proximity alone should not imply guilt. That would be like claiming that you farted whenever there’s a bad smell and you happen to be in the vicinity. Sure you may have intestines but that doesn’t mean that every foul stench emanated from your guts.

Plus, it’s a lot easier to leak a pocket of air though your butt than a virus from a BSL-4 facility. BSL-4 facilities maintain the highest level of security among bio-laboratories since they do work on dangerous potentially life-threatening agents such as the Ebola, Lassa fever, and Marburg viruses. So it’s not as if the people inside these labs are playing throw and catch with the viruses and stuffing them into their pockets. To be designated as a BSL-4, the lab has to have the appropriate ventilation systems, reinforced walls, security systems, and construction to keep the wrong things inside and the right things outside.

Is it unusual then to have a BSL-4 facility in a city like Wuhan, China? Not really. There are already at least six BSL-4 facilities in the U.S. in Atlanta, GA, Frederick, MD, Galveston, TX, Hamilton, MT, and San Antonio, TX. According to the Federation of American Scientists website, seven others may be planned, under construction, or possibly finished in various cities such as Boston, MA, and Richmond, VA. These labs in the U.S. also study and house a range of dangerous pathogens. So again having a lab that studies bad pathogens does not mean that the lab released anything.

Not to be outdone, some in China have made similar suggestions, except that it’s the U.S. that built the virus and released it in China. Well, that’s original. For example, take a look at these three tweets from Zhao Lijian, Spokesperson and Deputy Director General, Information Department for the Foreign Ministry of China:

Yes, the claim is that the U.S. released a virus in China so that the U.S. can then eventually suffer the consequences of the spreading virus just a couple months later. Makes a whole lotta sense, except that it doesn’t. Where exactly is the real evidence that the U.S. military created SARS-CoV2?

The back-and-forth dialogue has continued with President Donald Trump then referring to SARS-CoV2 as the “Chinese Virus” as can be seen here:

When questioned why he was using this label rather than the real scientific name of the virus, Trump claimed that it was in response to the claim that the U.S. military had created the virus. The video accompanying the following tweet shows the exchange:

Back and forth. Back and forth. Back and forth.

So, it looks like conspiracy theorists on both sides haven’t really provided any compelling evidence that SARS-CoV2 was produced in a lab, whether in the U.S., in China, or in the Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry.

In fact, there is not only a lack of evidence supporting these conspiracy theories, there has been growing strong scientific evidence against both of them. Scientists, you know the ones who are actually trying to find the truth and solve a problem rather than blame people, have been conducting genetic analyses to determine where the virus came from and how it ended up infecting humans. Although viruses aren’t exactly like people as they don’t seem to have feelings or spread rumors, viruses do have genetic material like people, except their genetic material is not quite as complex as those of humans. Nevertheless, like humans, viruses still pass along such materials when they replicate and evolve. It’s not as simple as The Jerry Springer Show using genetic testing to find out if a guy is someone’s father, but scientists can use more advanced genetic analysis to figure out the origins, the “family tree” of SARS-CoV2.

Indeed, strong clues had already emerged by February 26, 2020, when a Perspectives piece was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. In the piece, David M. Morens, M.D. and Peter Daszak, Ph.D. from the National Institute of Health (NIH) and Jeffery K. Taubenberger, M.D., Ph.D. wrote: “Of course, scientists tell us that SARS-CoV-2 did not escape from a jar: RNA sequences closely resemble those of viruses that silently circulate in bats, and epidemiologic information implicates a bat-origin virus infecting unidentified animal species sold in China’s live-animal markets.”

This wasn’t exactly a case of same bat channel, same bat time. But the first, more deadlier SARS virus seemed to cause the 2002-2003 outbreak after it had managed to jump from bats to humans via intermediate hosts such as masked palm civets. Yes, some masked beings may have inadvertently partnered with bats to bring the original SARS virus to humans. So it wouldn’t be too surprising if something like that happened again for SARS-CoV2.

Even more evidence of a natural rather than human-made origin for SARS-CoV2 has emerged from a study described in a research letter just published in Nature Medicine. In the letter, a research team (Kristian G. Andersen from The Scripps Research Institute, Andrew Rambaut from the University of Edinburgh, W. Ian Lipkin from the Mailman School of Public Health of Columbia University, Edward C. Holmes from The University of Sydney and Robert F. Garry from Tulane University) described how they had analyzed the genetic sequences that code for the protein spikes on the surface of SARS-CoV2. The virus looks sort of like a medieval mace with multiple spikes sticking out from its spherical shape. These spikes aren’t just for show as the virus uses them to latch on to a cell that it wants to invade and then push its way into the cell. Very medieval stuff.

Apparently, portions of these spike proteins are so effective in targeting specific receptors on human cells that it is hard to imagine humans manufacturing them, not with known existing technology. The researchers then concluded that this feature and thus the new coronavirus could have in all likelihood only evolved over time naturally. You see humans can make useful stuff like ride-sharing apps but are still quite puny compared to nature when it comes to making stuff like viruses.

In fact, the research team found that the SARS-CoV-2 structure in general is quite different from what humans would have likely concocted. If a human had wanted to create a viral weapon, he or she would have started with the structure of a virus that’s already known to cause illness in people. Naturally, if you want to make a weapon, you may want to start with something like a grenade launcher rather than a smoothie maker, not that the virus looks like either. Instead, the structure of SARS-CoV2 is quite similar to those of viruses known to infect bats and pangolins.

So all of this further supports the theory that the virus jumped from bats to humans via some intermediate animal host. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the virus started causing trouble as soon as it started infecting humans. An alternative possibility is that it jumped a longer time ago and hung out among humans for a while before eventually evolving into its current troublesome selves. This latter possibility would be somewhat analogous to inviting someone to live with you because he or she initially seemed relatively harmless but then over time finding out that this flat mate has become a terror.

The findings from the genetic analyses are consistent with how SARS-CoV2 is currently behaving. The virus is not acting like a bio-weapon right now. The best bio-weapons kill at a much higher rate and can be readily transported and released. Imagine being told that a bio-weapon might take the lives of 1% to 3.4% of the people that it infects but you don’t quite know specifically which ones. The difference between SARS-CoV2 and pathogens like the Ebola Virus or anthrax is like the difference between a bunch of sofas and a collection of missiles. Sure, the former can cause harm but not in a predictable and consistent manner. If someone actually decided to develop SARS-CoV2 as a bio-weapon, that person needs to find a new job.

So there you have it: scientific evidence trumping conspiracy theories. Will all of these scientific findings finally quash the “virus-was-made-in-a-lab-and-it-is-your-fault” rhetoric between the politicians and on social media? Probably not. Since when has science stopped such political rhetoric. Maybe, though, it will get more people to focus on the much more important matter at hand: trying to control this pandemic together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 22, 2020, 02:26:56 PM
Check-ins?

Atlanta is good, all things considered. We're settled in Marietta, which is Northwest of the city, somewhat. I've been prepping for this for about 4-5 weeks now, so we have a decent stock of stuff.

I decided to start a Pandemic blog (https://matthillica.tumblr.com/), which will either be awesome if this goes on for 12-18 months or seem really stupid if life picks up and is back to normal in 3-4 weeks, but whatever. My bet is that we're quarantined at least until mid June, but even that would be a best case scenario for me. I dunno... just felt like writing some of this stuff down because it made sense as a way to process all of this. It's more of a way for me to go back and process how this all felt once the years pass and the memory of this whole situation has dulled somewhat.

Stores here seem to still be functioning, although when I do take trips to the grocery store, I find myself buying things I wouldn't usually get because they're all that's left. Things like potato bread (this stuff is awesome and I'm not sure why it's the last thing left on the shelf), tomato bisque vs. soup (my wife corrected me that we usually buy soup, not bisque and I clapped back "well, that's all that was left!")... it was a quick spousal argument like many followed by several moments of silence as we each weighed the words "all that was left". Seems like there have been a lot of those this week.

My challenges with this so far have almost all been personal. Taking a conference call over website edits or a marketing status with our team punctuated by frantic texts to my wife at her folks' house begging her not to let them go to the store and to just use the frozen meat we'd put in a cooler and brought to them that day. My wife also has some pretty serious autoimmune diseases (Schmidt's Syndrome... JFK had it), so trying to protect her health and the health of my in laws has taken up most of my mental real estate this week.

Oh, also my wife is 14 weeks pregnant, so our timing is pretty fuckin impeccable there too. Nothing completes the apocalypse scenario like a pregnant, vulnerable wife... just ask Lori Grimes.

Besides all that, I find myself surrounded by people who are at various stages of coming to grips with this. They run the gamut from "omg this is the apocalypse" to "this is just the media trying to bring Trump down"... which basically means I'm trying to keep all people at arms' length. We were out in our driveway the other day just trying to escape the monotony of our house and I guess everyone else in our little neighborhood decided the same thing. As we were out, some other neighbors walked by and asked us how we were doing... idle chit chat. They stood at the top of the driveway. After a bit, the husband spoke up and said something along the lines of "yeah, I decided to work from home yesterday and join everyone else not doing actual work." and shook his head as if this was all being blown out of proportion. The first thought when he did that was, "Man, I hope he doesn't try to come down this driveway and commiserate with us because he's big and I don't want to have to tell him to get away." So many surreal moments like that.

Anyway, hope you are all well and staying as sane as possible. Thank god for weed and video games.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on March 22, 2020, 06:13:17 PM
We lost 50% of our office on Friday.  Layoffs.  Luckily I survived the first round, but I doubt I'll survive the next.  Probably because the next round will be the business closing.  We are a small accounting firm for restaurants and obviously have been hit hard by many of them closing.  Luckily a few have gone to carryout or delivery only and might eek by the next few months.  If the closures lasts past April I think that will be it for my clients.  I don't have the ability to telecommute.  We have to be hardwired into the network since we deal with business' financial information. 

I'm in a good position compared to others for sure.  We have plenty of food, our neighbors have chickens that lay eggs and grow their own vegetables.  I've also got a wife who has a job unless governments completely cease.  But by that time we will have bunkered down in my father's place in WVA.  We have some money in the bank and if I do lose my job we won't be homeless.  I know a lot of people are much worse off than I am.  All that being said I'm scared.  I'm sure we all are to an extent, but in truth that brings me little comfort.  I'm not sure why I'm writing all this out.  Maybe it's just so I can express the craziness floating around my brain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 22, 2020, 08:14:31 PM
Yet another 600 in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 23, 2020, 09:58:42 AM
For me, traditional book sales are dead. No orders in the last two weeks. But an outpouring of support for the ebooks, audiobooks, and direct sales has kept this month in the black (so far). If the community continues to support us in this fashion, we'll be able to get by. The problem is that they have to do this every month (and, if this is the new norm...)

Bethesda is crazy. Everyone who could afford to go is gone. There are now more cops (and national guard) than people. The farmer's market was open yesterday, but armed guards roamed around everywhere. We also hit the supermarket and it was post-hurricane-looted style.

I've kind of passed though the anxiety phase and am now just stealing all the new "Home Premiere" movies, playing video games, and working on the final edits to my sci-fi novel.

The throne maiden is like you, Sirharles. Technically not allowed to work at home since she has to be hardwired into the network. For folks of her ilk, the solution is "80 hours of paid training." That begins this week and buys her two weeks of full pay. After that, the paychecks end. The hope is that we'll either get back to some sense of normality by then or the Feds will do a lockdown and protect the contractors like her in some way OR it'll be the apocalypse and we can stop worrying about fucking money (we both kind of prefer that scenario). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 23, 2020, 11:16:07 AM
All that being said I'm scared.  I'm sure we all are to an extent, but in truth that brings me little comfort.  I'm not sure why I'm writing all this out.  Maybe it's just so I can express the craziness floating around my brain.

I know exactly what you mean and am really sorry for the anxiety you're going through. Writing things down has helped me process as well, but I feel like we're only beginning to peel the layers of this onion, so to speak. I'm sure in two weeks' time, I'll look back on the early days of this with the realization that it was only the beginning.

Anyone else find themselves rooting for the conspiracy theorists here? I sure do... I mean, I still think that if you believe this is a media conspiracy to bring down Trump or that a malaria drug will cure this and wipe it all away, you're delusional... but I'm praying that you're right.

My real hope is that enough Americans have taken the social distancing / quarantine / lockdown thing seriously that it really will prevent mass spread of this, but I think that's a longshot. My guess is that within a week, the US will have the most cases in the world and will be the new epicenter of the outbreak. I've been watching us tick up on the list from that site all week... the US now has the 3rd highest number of cases in the entire world behind China and Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 23, 2020, 11:55:17 AM
The model on this site predicts the last day your state has to react before healthcare systems become overwhelmed: https://covidactnow.org/

As if any of us needed more sobering shit to contemplate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 23, 2020, 12:16:52 PM
I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.

My wife and I went out for a jog yesterday and we saw a ton of people out. (It was a gorgeous day up here in the mountains.) While most people seems to be social distancing, it seemed like business as usual. As the stupid Florida spring kids, and all the jackasses in Brooklyn show, people think they're invincible, I suppose I fall for a little bit of that myself although both my wife and I expect to get it, if we don't have it already. It's really a question of how sick are we going get.

I've entered the news blackout portion of this. Sure, I can watch the number so cases and deaths rise, but nothing going change. There's not suddenly going to be enough tests and there's not suddenly going to be a vaccine. It's the just the steady rise of the exponential curve. We have a "What if we get sick?" and a "What if the world goes full-on Fury Road?" plan. I can't live with constant anxiety.

I'm happy I have classes to teach online that gave me a vague sense of purpose, and I'm happy that I love in a small town where, so far, I don't have to to deal with the effects of it on. I'm quarantined. (Though we're scheduled to close on a house refinance this week, in which we're require to go to a law office to sign papers. I'm hoping we can do it digitally. EDIT: We just a call that we can do it digitally.)

I also just got an email from my institution's president saying the school has been upgraded to Pandemic Level II, forced work from home. We'e been asked to donate at least 1% of our pay to an emergency "keep the school alive" fund. (I did so this AM.) Certain staff members are being asked dot to voluntary furloughs in which they won't be paid, but will still receive health benefits. Involuntary furloughs are on the horizon, though faculty will likely be the last to be cut. I'll get paid through mid-May for sure. After that ???

EDIT: 1:00 PM press conference with the WV governor schedule for today, whom we think is going to put the state on lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 23, 2020, 12:30:43 PM
I put all the important data links that I check with regularity on the front page of this thread so we can access them easily. Let me know if there's something you want me to add.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on March 23, 2020, 02:43:23 PM
Well MD went into closing all "non essential businesses".  Although after reading the list of what type of business is essential I can't figure out what actually will be closing.  Other than maybe some small retailers.

And for an extra level of comfort my boss asked me what would be better for us.  For us to be let go and collect unemployment or to drop down to part time.  So there's that.  The answer of course is as long as the part time pay exceeds unemployment, it's better than losing a job entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 23, 2020, 03:37:34 PM
Rumour from a reliable source tells me France is set to declare military enforced curfew this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 23, 2020, 03:43:14 PM
Just logged onto a conference call to review website changes and... I've been "furloughed"! Comms from the corporate office to come later today. My boss and our graphic designer were also furloughed as well. All in all, I think 175 people at my office are about to lose their jobs "temporarily" today.

Guess it's time to play Doom.

Fuck this shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 23, 2020, 03:59:59 PM
Sorry fellas. Bad times indeed.

Nubbins, are you receiving health benefits on your furlough? I know my institution is doing that. (No retirement or 401K though.)

What about you, Sirharles? i assume part time means no health benefits. Though you get those through that lady you live with, yes?

Rumour from a reliable source tells me France is set to declare military enforced curfew this week.

So does that mean if I'm out letting my dog take a shit in Nice, I can be shot where I stand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on March 23, 2020, 04:02:46 PM

What about you, Sirharles? i assume part time means no health benefits. Though you get those through that lady you live with, yes?


No benefits to lose!  Yes, health is covered by Mrs. Sirharles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 23, 2020, 05:27:10 PM
France is doing a great job to protect businesses:

I can put my staff on temporary unemployment - 80% net paid by the state - and all loan repayments, interest etc. pushed back for 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 23, 2020, 07:07:20 PM
It’s like you live in a civilized nation, instead of a medieval swampland covered in smoke and mirrors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 24, 2020, 11:16:37 AM
Luckily, I’m covered by my wife’s health insurance. But Brightstar is covering health insurance for other people during the crisis. About 175 people at my office were furloughed yesterday, so lots of us in the same boat.

I get it... they’re trying to save the company. We’ll get through it. Hopefully we have jobs to go back to when this ends, but considering the shape of the economy currently, I’m guessing it will take a long time for the jobs to recover from this even after we’re through the worst of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 24, 2020, 11:43:25 AM
Quote
Anyone else find themselves rooting for the conspiracy theorists here? I sure do... I mean, I still think that if you believe this is a media conspiracy to bring down Trump or that a malaria drug will cure this and wipe it all away, you're delusional... but I'm praying that you're right.

I think it's a conspiracy of urban landlords to shut down ma and pop restaurants and bars so they can rent out property to the more reliable chains.

Quote
My real hope is that enough Americans have taken the social distancing / quarantine / lockdown thing seriously that it really will prevent mass spread of this, but I think that's a longshot. My guess is that within a week, the US will have the most cases in the world and will be the new epicenter of the outbreak. I've been watching us tick up on the list from that site all week... the US now has the 3rd highest number of cases in the entire world behind China and Italy.

The states that are more proactive about it (like Maryland) are seeing a decrease. But I think the whole thing was too little too late. New York had over 2000 new cases and 26 deaths in the last 24 hours. And all the other states dragging their heels on the lockdown are going to be next.

I think we are beginning to "flatten the curve," though. The problem is that, yes, the magic malaria pill is lunacy. They may as well say athletes foot powder is the cure. And we can't all hide indoors for weeks or months... We'll have to go out sometime and it's not like the virus will fuck off and go on a vacation if it looks at the empty streets and thinks everyone's gone. We're still getting home deliveries, we're still getting mail, the transport infrastructure is unhindered, people are still lining up at closed restaurants for take out, we're still going to the farmer's markets, the grocery stores... We're NOT on lockdown even when we say we are. We're on a very American lockdown.

Quote
Well MD went into closing all "non essential businesses".  Although after reading the list of what type of business is essential I can't figure out what actually will be closing.  Other than maybe some small retailers.

Yeah, it's basically the same as the last order. I think the announcement yesterday was just like a final warning sort of thing -- stop being dumb fuckers and stay at home or else we're putting boots on the ground.

Quote
France is doing a great job to protect businesses:

I can put my staff on temporary unemployment - 80% net paid by the state - and all loan repayments, interest etc. pushed back for 6 months.

This is where socialism pays off! We're fucked here.

Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 24, 2020, 11:44:36 AM
I put all the important data links that I check with regularity on the front page of this thread so we can access them easily. Let me know if there's something you want me to add.

I am a fan of this site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I think you have power to edit the first post? I'm fine if you want to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 24, 2020, 11:50:28 AM
This from a friend of a friend:

https://lithub.com/the-new-silences-of-rome-under-quarantine/

Quote
At first we didn’t notice how the city slowly went quiet. It was as if some strange God had gotten hold of the volume and had been lowering it, imperceptibly, day after day. At first it was just fewer people, fewer cars, empty buses.

Only two weeks ago at the very beginning of the crisis—it feels like a year now—it had started to rain and I was happy to be able to grab a taxi right away. The driver was in a bad mood. “No work! Nobody is going anywhere, no tourists, no cinemas, no restaurants!” I was tired of hearing his complaints, they went on and on, and as soon as there was a silence I heard him cough—very discreetly—and I realized I must be inhaling his germs, trapped as I was in that closed space. So I—very discreetly as well—rolled down the window just enough so that I could breathe fresh air. I remember being embarrassed, but I did it anyway, making sure he didn’t notice. I made a point of not taking a taxi again. We were new to this, and not sure yet how to navigate it.

The following day we did something we hadn’t done since we were children: we went inside the Colosseum, because, for the first time since we could remember, there was no line and we crossed the forums on foot on our way home. There were just a handful of people, and we felt surrounded by an atmosphere of peaceful suspension, as when it snows and everything is wrapped in cotton wool. The ruins were magnificent, standing alone in the empty landscape, as though they were revealed to us for the first time. Rome never looked so beautiful with all its cracks, ruins, and old age. I felt grateful for its resilience to time and wars and catastrophes. I didn’t know yet why I was so moved by that thought then, but I do now.

That same night friends showed up at a restaurant. We had made the date only three days earlier, at a time when we thought the epidemic was just a bad flu, and then (only two days later when it did start getting serious) nobody had dared cancel. We greeted one another hesitantly, again slightly embarrassed to be asking “…no kissing, right?” and we laughed, pretending we didn’t really care, that we were just obeying a new rule we had been told to observe.

Rome never looked so beautiful with all its cracks, ruins, and old age.
It was only later in the evening when I was walking home, after getting a message forwarded from a friend of a friend who works in a hospital that intensive care units in Lombardy were getting swamped, that I realized we might be entering into something unprecedented, out of our control. Suddenly I noticed the only sounds around me were the ambulance sirens.

The next day we woke up to learn that half of the north of the country was on lockdown.

In the evening the lockdown was extended to the whole country.

By then we had been told we needed to keep a meter of distance from everyone else. We haven’t learned how to do this intuitively yet, so we keep measuring the space, pretending to be casual, but we have to estimate centimeters, gauge whether we’re getting too close, dodge each other on the street by doing weird pirouettes in order to avoid brushing one another.

We’ve become like scattered dots in space.

Within 24 hours we learned we could leave the house only for strict necessities, such as buying groceries, or medical reasons, and that we had to download a form, fill in our details, and the exact reason for being out, and carry it with us at all times. Police cars patrol the streets and stop people randomly to make sure they carry the form and are telling the truth. They even ask to see shopping receipts.

Today the government has announced even stricter measures: there’s a ban on running and biking, (parks were closed a week ago) and nobody is allowed to walk any further than a mile and half from their place of residence. Suddenly the only way to see a friend or a relative who lives within that one-mile radius is to make an appointment outside a pharmacy or a supermarket and stand in the long queue of one meter-distanced people masked and gloved. This is how we get to spend a few minutes together: like clandestine lovers walking through the aisles of a supermarket.

Everyone will have longer hair or beards when this is over (gray roots are already showing!), couples will divorce, fewer people than ever will fall in love, some will learn to meditate, start yoga, and many will have a nervous breakdown—everyone will gain weight.

Yesterday I managed to bring my sister half of an orange and almond cake that I had baked for myself. We met on the street both covered in mask and gloves. In order to keep the lawful distance we stretched our arms out toward each other as I passed her the cake. We didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. We laughed, because that’s what we’ve always done and we want to keep it that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 24, 2020, 11:50:45 AM
Finally the UK has decided to react... another 500 dead in Spain... and Week 2 of Cabin Fever begins in France.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 24, 2020, 02:08:57 PM
Nacho, I added your link to the front page.

We're NOT on lockdown even when we say we are. We're on a very American lockdown.

Yeah, We're an a'la carte culture in the States. It's going to be hard to reverse that programming.

I went out today for the "final" run before the official WV lockdown kicks in at 8:00 PM tonight. Still tons of people out, though everything had a weird closed up vibe as well. I picked up my and Missus RC's new glasses which of course meant taking something from a human. (We did the handoff with a Clorox wipe, and I put them in a plastic bag to be disinfected before I went into the house.) Then I took our recycling to the bin. Saw no people, except for one old man who kept coming in too close so I'd back up. Finally, I went to school to pick up film gear. I now have a full (though slight) production studio in my house. One of my colleagues was there. We talked to each other from about fifteen feet away. (Again all the gear go thoroughly wipes down with bleach water or a clorox wipe before we put i in our shed.) I didn't realize how much I miss human contact until that conversation.

Once home, I immediately stripped down and put my clothes in the wash. Then I jumped in the shower.

Talked to my buddy in San Francisco last night. His wife is sick. He's unsure if it's COVID-19 or just a cold.  He also said he had a female friend who had it. This is secondhand hearsay, but basically it started out as a light cough. Next day, the fever kicked in which lasted for five days and never got below 101, even with Tylenol. the woman who had it definitely had trouble breathing. The worst part, she said was just generalized pain everywhere. everything hurt and the Tylenol didn't touch it. Fever broke on Day 5, but it was Day 9 before she really got out of bed.

"You don't want to get this," is what she supposedly said to him.

Meanwhile #ReopenAmerica is trending on Twitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 25, 2020, 02:34:09 PM
Another 700 dead in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 25, 2020, 03:17:59 PM
Also... France’s medical college or advisory board or whatever - just imagine Kevin Klein from French Kiss - very much suggested to l’Elysee that our confinement should be extended for another 4 weeks and honestly... I’m stuck indoors with an infant about to turn 2 years old and... and... and... please, send help.

Tonight I shall open my last bottle of wine from my ‘cave’ - a lovely Château Morillon ‘Grand Bordeaux’ Blaye Côtes de Bordeaux 2017 to accompany my intensely marbled Black Angus  rump steak.

After this... chaos.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 25, 2020, 03:41:54 PM

After this... chaos.

Wine run seems essential at this point. Maybe some liquor too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 26, 2020, 09:16:12 AM
Also... France’s medical college or advisory board or whatever - just imagine Kevin Klein from French Kiss - very much suggested to l’Elysee that our confinement should be extended for another 4 weeks and honestly... I’m stuck indoors with an infant about to turn 2 years old and... and... and... please, send help.

Tonight I shall open my last bottle of wine from my ‘cave’ - a lovely Château Morillon ‘Grand Bordeaux’ Blaye Côtes de Bordeaux 2017 to accompany my intensely marbled Black Angus  rump steak.

After this... chaos.

Right there with you. Ours turns 2 in a week and she’s going stir crazy. Thank god for weed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 27, 2020, 03:05:38 PM
Another 969 dead today in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 27, 2020, 04:58:26 PM
I just read that before coming here. Though the good news is Italian officials also say the number of new cases has slowed. 

Read this. It’s amazingly sound science in where COVID-19 comes from and gives a pretty rosy view about our chances of developing treatments.

https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/from-bats-to-human-lungs-the-evolution-of-a-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 27, 2020, 05:17:06 PM
Italian cases have slowed down before... until the next increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 28, 2020, 10:22:33 AM
Italian cases have slowed down before... until the next increase.

Don't worry, Spain is picking up the snowball.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 28, 2020, 11:08:43 AM
Italian cases have slowed down before... until the next increase.

Don't worry, Spain is picking up the snowball.

And we in the U.S. aren't far behind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 28, 2020, 12:02:07 PM
Italian cases have slowed down before... until the next increase.

Don't worry, Spain is picking up the snowball.

And we in the U.S. aren't far behind.

We're keeping people alive. The infection rate is scary, but the death rate is way low. Right now, the death rate in Italy and Spain is between 5-10%. In the US, we're around 2%.

So, once that death rate jumps to 5%. That's when we're going to see the first cracks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on March 28, 2020, 04:21:47 PM
Over 10,000 total deaths in Italy...
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 30, 2020, 01:25:55 PM
And Maryland is "lockdown" as of 8pm tonight. The order is essentially the same as it has been, except now you can go to jail or be fined if you're ignoring it (and that's already happened in a few cases).
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 31, 2020, 10:43:23 AM
And Maryland is "lockdown" as of 8pm tonight. The order is essentially the same as it has been, except now you can go to jail or be fined if you're ignoring it (and that's already happened in a few cases).

Virginia's lockdown is through June 10th.

We already have some business's that have folded in Bethesda. Even if our lockdown lifts in 30 days, it's going to change the whole landscape for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 31, 2020, 11:23:41 AM
I bet that June 10 becomes a standard across he board over the next coupe weeks... though the social distancing/lockdowns seem to be working in terms of no overloading hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 31, 2020, 01:58:45 PM
At this point, I'm going to assume I'm not going to die from this thing. (And when I'm dead, you can point and laugh.)

My brain has been thinking about the long term effects. Part of this is likely a way to disconnect from how bad it could still get. (And make no mistake, it can still very easily get bad. I think it's more likely to get really bad than not.) If/when I get COVID-19, there's nothing I can do but hope I'm not one of the 3.4%. If I stress constantly over that, I won't make it. I'll die on purpose.

I do know a few folks who *think* they have it or have had it. Only one actually tested positive. From her Facebook post:

Quote
Now that I'm finally a the tail end of COVID-19, thought I'd share some of the I experienced, including many that aren’t usually talked about!

What to look out for:
-sore throat
-eye infection
-migraines
-kaleidoscope vision
-COUGH
-shortness of breath
-nausea/lack of appetite
-extreme fatigue
-congestion

This was definitely worse than the flu and probably the sickest I've been in a while, and I'm a 26 year old relatively healthy person. Stay inside everyone!


Barring any Mad Max/Red Dawn/Children of Men scenario, I still think the most likely long term effects are largely financial. Here's a great piece on what the recovery may or may not look like depending on the quality of leadership.

I bolded and italicized one part that caught my attention. It makes me wonder what the geo-political landscape looks like in the long run as well. I don't know if I posted it, but there was an article about how this type of global financial and societal upheaval is very similar to conditions before both WWI and WWII.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/28/21195207/coronavirus-covid-19-financial-crisis-economy-depression-recession

Quote
What both the left and the right get wrong about the coronavirus economic crisis
Ezra Klein@ezraklein
13-16 minutes

Adam Tooze is the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of history and the director of the European Institute at Columbia University. He’s the author of many books, including Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World — which is, in my view, the single best history of the 2008 financial crisis and its extraordinary aftermath.

That aftermath shapes the context in which the coronavirus is happening — both the economic reality it’s disrupting and the intellectual and policy tools the world’s governments are calling forth in the response. In some ways, that’s a good thing: The world learned much about responding to financial crises in 2008. But in other ways, it’s dangerous: This is a very different sort of economic crisis than 2008, and if we can’t see it for what it is — if we refight the last crisis, rather than this one — we will fail.

I spoke with Tooze over the phone. A transcript of our conversation, lightly edited for clarity and length, follows.


Ezra Klein
In your great history of the financial crisis, Crashed, you argue that American policymakers had spent years preparing for the wrong crises, which left them confused when the real crisis came and it wasn’t what they expected. With that history in mind, do you think policymakers are seeing this crisis clearly, or are they locked in past arguments?

Adam Tooze
It’s been shocking. So much of what’s happening in financial markets today seems incredibly familiar to anyone who spent a lot of time in the 2007-’08 story and its aftermath. The language, the script, even the names — the people who are actually contributing to the conversation — are a very similar group.

On the other hand, there’s this incredibly unfamiliar trigger. This isn’t how most of us imagined this would happen at all. It isn’t as though I was unaware of pandemic risks, but very few people contemplated the exact playbook we’ve seen: the very deliberate government shutdown of all of the major economies of the world, triggering this epic shock in the financial markets.

So we need to differentiate between two strands of the conversation. One strand of the conversation is what’s been going on in the financial markets. That is, to an extraordinary extent, a rerun of 2008 with slight modifications. We understand macrofinance far better than we did 15 years ago, so none of us are spending too much time on macroeconomic imbalances, like America’s current account deficit. To that extent, 2008 is a good guide to the mechanics of stabilizing the financial markets. And I think the Fed and ECB [European Central Bank] have internalized this.

It’s on the fiscal policy side where I think we are at risk of running in the wrong direction, because the real economic measures that we’re adopting are completely unprecedented. To think about what we need as a kind of wartime mobilization seems to me to miss the point completely. This is a much more peculiar task than that. The job is maintaining the economy on life support during a period of an artificially induced coma while we address the public health challenge.

We can all come up with idealized, perfect policies that maintain the status quo for three months so we can put the hammer down and then dance our way out. But that’s a completely unrealistic account of how politics operates. Right now, everyone is faced with a sort of prisoner’s dilemma logic: They must advocate for the kind of policies they would normally advocate for, or else someone else will get their policies passed. You’re forced by the dog-eat-dog nature [of] the American political system to engage in that kind of politics.

Ezra Klein
One of the things that has been so striking to me is the bifurcated nature of the conversation. There are people arguing for social democracy or a Green New Deal. And that argument takes place in a world where we have not just the political will to respond to the crisis, but the political will to build toward a new future.

On the other side of it, there were only a couple of days where Donald Trump was convinced that coronavirus was a big deal, and he had to act like the president and try to do the hard work of slowing it. Now he wants to pivot back to business as usual — the cure can’t be worse than the disease. It feels like there’s one conversation happening among people who want to imagine a new political future, and then another happening among people who can’t imagine themselves two weeks into the future.

Adam Tooze
The ultimate perversity is that their inability to imagine a future will not enable them to return to the pre-crisis situation. If people were to take Trump’s words literally and act on them, the result would be some apocalyptic mess on the scale of Iran, not Italy.

So it’s a conservatism which is wholly ineffective because it’s not going to deliver a continuity with the present — the situation is too dramatic for that. The Chinese Communist Party are the truly conservative ones right now. They recognize that everything has to change so that everything can stay the same. Trump isn’t able to perform that basic kind of statecraft of conservatism. You have to move precisely in order to stabilize the situation. If we don’t, what we’re headed toward is unspeakable mass death and huge economic losses.

Ezra Klein
I think that’s a really important point. And bringing China into this is a good bridge to something I want to talk with you about. I think people get that coronavirus is a global problem, but the economic crisis is being framed as a domestic problem. But it isn’t. What are the biggest international finance or geopolitical risks you see right now?

Adam Tooze
The first is the most boring and the most familiar: the eurozone and Italy. That issue is achingly tedious, but it looks as though the Europeans have woken up and moved to fix that situation.

Then there’s the China risk. China is the dog that hasn’t barked in this crisis so far because of the success of [its] conservative strategy. There has not been a big movement in the Chinese exchange rate and very little action on the Chinese balance of payments. But the situation may be more fragile than Beijing is comfortable with. And that has implications for everyone around them: the South Koreans, the Taiwanese, Singaporeans, the Japanese, the Australians. If the Chinese economy doesn’t come back strong, that’s a game changer for all of them.

I think the third element is the crisis that is hitting the big emerging markets: the South Africas, the Brazils, the Nigerias, and potentially the Algerians, the Indias, the Indonesias. These are huge countries with big economies, with large American interests in them, and big geopolitical ramifications. And they are in harm’s way. Their currencies are plunging, they have large debts, and they’re going to be hit by the public health crisis on a really epic scale — especially in South Africa, where they have a big immunocompromised HIV[-positive] population.

The fourth zone of risk is the OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] complex. A trigger for the crisis in the financial markets was the breakdown of the OPEC-Russia negotiations and the signal from the Saudis that they were just going to produce and let the oil price crash. That was the moment that the financial markets really plunged. We tend to focus very much on Russia, Saudi, and shale in the US, but the vulnerable high-cost oil producers and energy producers is a really alarming list of countries. On top of the list for me will be Algeria and Nigeria — I think there is the potential for quite substantial regional destabilization.

Ezra Klein
It seems to me that another risk is that we’re scapegoating and blaming and escalating tensions with China — the Trump administration, and others in the Republican Party, have already pivoted to this as a political strategy. The Trump administration tried to force the UN to call this “the Wuhan virus.” Senior Chinese officials are saying the virus came from the US military. Rising fury between the two largest economies during a crisis of this scale seems like a very dangerous situation.

Adam Tooze
There’s no doubt at all that the antagonism between China and the US is a central fault line. Yesterday I stumbled over the perfect complement to the Chinese-American standoff. The Iranian regime is quite committed to the idea that coronavirus was genetically engineered by the Americans to attack Persian genomes. The supreme leader went on television the other night to say that this was the reason why Iran would be refusing external aid, especially aid involving American doctors. Meanwhile, the Pew Research Center is finding very substantial minorities of Americans who are wholly persuaded that this came out of a Chinese weapons attack.

But the absolute worst case has not happened. A lot of us, I remember, had conversations with ex-Obama people lingering in international organizations who were very worried that in the event of a new financial crisis, the GOP in Congress and the Trump administration would sabotage their efforts to conduct global financial stabilization. What we’ve seen so far in the last couple of weeks is [that] the situation is so discombobulated, and the Trump administration is such a headless chicken, that there isn’t even a concerted nationalist pushback against the global stabilization efforts being pursued by the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund.

At the same time, the disarticulation of levels of power in the US government is such that you can have people pursuing security policy in one corner and you can have people pursuing global stabilization of the global financial system in another corner. And then you have the clown car performance in the White House. Sometimes, of course, these things interfere, but by the standards of the great Marshall Plan era, where all of the elements lined up, American power is grotesquely incoherent at this point.

This allows separate solutions to be pursued in different arenas. So, for political purposes, you run the anti-Chinese stuff. Meanwhile, the Fed is pursuing a policy which is actually quite accommodative of the People’s Bank of China. There’s a sort of a functionality that actually emerges out of the incoherence.

Ezra Klein
There is the debate right now over how you stop a mass wave of business closures. And I think, in the wake of 2008, that people tend to think demand-side stimulus was good, even if we didn’t do enough of it, and that the bailouts were morally and politically bad. Now there is a fight about how to do oversight on loans to businesses so you make sure it’s not a slush fund. On the one hand, I very much understand that fear. But on the other hand, we’re not in the same situation where businesses bear the responsibility for what’s happening. I wonder how you think about that question.

Adam Tooze
Like you say, the fundamental difference is that in ’07-’08, the truly egregious bailouts were being delivered to the people who engineered the leverage and reaped the rewards that generated the crisis. And that’s just not the case here.

On the left especially, it seems like there’s a desire to reenact the battles of ‘08, but this isn’t the same sort of crisis. In the meantime, we’ve developed an antitrust critique of the tendencies of American capitalism of the last 20 years, which I truly sympathize with. But the question is: Is this really the moment for that? Or would you, by way of that kind of politics, foreclose the possibility of maintaining an adequate level of employment for many millions of Americans whose jobs are at risk?

Three million people have lost their jobs in a week. And they’re not losing them in the big companies. They’re losing them in the thousands and thousands of small- and medium-size enterprises. We don’t really have a good model for doing stimulus for them. So to my mind, the priority really has got to be on stabilization, which is a status quo politics — it’s a kind of conservative politics. But that’s really where the problem lies.

Ezra Klein
Let me ask you the question from the opposite side. There’s a critique by conservative economists which says that a lot of these businesses are going to go down no matter what, so by bailing out these businesses, you’re just putting taxpayers on the hook for this massive wave of business failures and slowing an economic transition afterward.

Adam Tooze
To me, that’s the economist’s equivalent of Trump’s Darwinian approach on the public health side — it’s a sort of an unreal realism. In practice, what that will do is create such a catastrophic collapse in employment and business activity that it will be completely untenable as an economic policy or politically.

The left wants reformist change and the right wants to allow the market process to operate unencumbered. Both of them, I think, are operating with a kind of unrealistic understanding of the nature of this crisis. If we’re looking at as many as 10 million jobs lost in a matter of months, these arguments go out the window and the argument for preservation of what we can still preserve becomes absolutely overriding.

These people saying that we’ve got to bite the bullet and get back to business just don’t comprehend the reality we’re facing, which is a scaled-up version of what we’re seeing in the hospitals of northern Italy. That’s realism. If you can maintain your position in the face of that, then we can take you seriously — not while you’re pontificating from the White House before Americans have really started to die in large numbers. Let’s come back to this argument in two weeks’ time, when the hospitals of DC and the hospitals of New York are running over and they are triaging thousands of people every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 31, 2020, 02:42:35 PM
Quote
how this type of global financial and societal upheaval is very similar to conditions before both WWI

As a couple who want to bug out of the DC area in the near future, we are full-on fingers crossed for a new Wiemar Republic in Europe. We'll go buy a seaside castle in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 31, 2020, 06:16:34 PM
Okay, for April -- no Debbie Downers! If you all are convinced you're going to get it anyway, then let's seek some joy.

I'm all for keeping the death numbers going, and juicy conspiracy stuff. But, you know, if you survive this you get to fuck Lucy Swan and Frannie Goldsmith.

And if you're an evil fuck, doomed to die horribly, you still get to have lovingly described anal sex scenes with Nadine Cross.

And, if you die, then it doesn't matter, because you're fucking dead.

So: April's theme is tracking the crisis, but not letting it into our hearts. Or, cockles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 01, 2020, 12:31:39 PM
I think that's fair. I check in on the news once a day now for new numbers and any possible state regulations that might change. (Usually in the evenings.) However, I'm not obsessing over it (anymore) because it's just going to be normal for a while.

Again, I'm sort of fascinated by what comes after. We're in the paradigm shift. It'd be weirdly exciting if it wasn't so scary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 01, 2020, 01:00:08 PM
Life after this will be interesting. So many places will close...and will we go back to the old ways? I, for one, will be glad if shaking hands becomes a thing of the past. Yuck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on April 01, 2020, 05:00:26 PM
Usually my weekends were packed with photo stuff.  Either shoots or working on the images from shoots.  But alas, that won't pick up for awhile.  So I bought a PS4 and Red Dead Redemption 2 because I really enjoyed the first game.  Then I came across this article.  Which I thought was a pretty interesting way to keep your editing skills and eye for photos honed.

https://www.pcgamesn.com/red-dead-redemption-2/rdr-photos-isolation

If you don't feel like clicking.  Basically, street photographers are now taking screen shots of street scenes in the game and posting to IG etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 01, 2020, 07:03:07 PM
So, are you just grabbing screenshots or are you using a camera?
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on April 01, 2020, 07:16:51 PM
You can screenshot while playing the game.  You can even do video.  No camera used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 02, 2020, 06:15:33 PM
AIDS is still a thing, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 03, 2020, 12:15:56 PM
AIDS is still a thing, right?

We lifted our ban on gays giving blood!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 03, 2020, 12:57:22 PM
AIDS is still a thing, right?

We lifted our ban on gays giving blood!

SARS-GAYVID 69.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 04, 2020, 11:42:10 AM
Update time! How is everyone coping with GAYVID?

Book sales were down 70% last month and my distributor is already firing people, cutting back, and warning publishers that they may not get paid. So, you know, it's the end of the world for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 04, 2020, 04:18:04 PM
Had to reset my Pestilence Doomsday Clock to midnight yesterday. Missus RC and I took advantaging of the failing markets to refinance our house and had to co-sign closing papers yesterday. We wore masks and brought our own pens, but were still in a room with another person. I mowed the lawn yesterday as well. Wednesday I went to the grocery store gain and picked up two cases of beer.

Online teaching is awful. Students aren't focused at all which really, who can blame them?

Other than that, it feels like an extended X-Mas vacation at our house. Games, movies, overeating. Too much booze. I only check the news once a day to get new numbers and see if Trump, say, fired the national intelligence director.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 04, 2020, 06:24:32 PM
Thanks, China!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Sirharles on April 04, 2020, 08:56:11 PM
Today we ordered Home Depot stuff online, and I went in and picked it up.  Never touched another person and was always 6ft from everyone.  It was really weird.  I cut the grass as well, which was a huge mistake because allergies have now made me think I'm dying.  Mrs. Sirharles is getting ready to teach online and I am still going in to work.  I don't have the ability to telecommute.  But there is only three of us in the office and we are all being pretty careful.  Mrs. Sirharles did tell me to stop reading as much news as I have been because I'm freaking her out about food shortages.

Photoshoots have all been canceled and I have no client images to work on.  But I'm working on some personal projects and bought a PS4.  Last weekend I was in Mrs. Sirharles face so much she insisted I get one.  LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 05, 2020, 10:42:52 AM
Paris has beautiful weather this weekend and because there’s no pollution to kill pollen, the plants are sexually abusing me. I also want to kick my neighbours in the teeth - not because they’re doing anything particularly bad; simply because I want to smash after... 19... days... in confinement with a toddler.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 05, 2020, 12:04:58 PM
Quote
Too much booze

After the Moco liquor store here became Outbreak Central, it's closed (along with all the others) for the long term. DC liquor stores are so overwhelmed that they're closing as well. Only one remains open, and they're almost always out of stock. We're also losing beer and wine shops almost daily. Only one open in Bethesda now, and it's price gouging like crazy.

(And, for those of you not local -- we're a "dry country," so you can't get alcohol in grocery stores, etc. They have to be designated, dedicated booze spots.)

Anyway -- this means that we now have to drive about an hour or so if we want to restock properly. Or we're paying $30 for bottle of wine that normally cost $10. And beer was the first to go...
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 05, 2020, 05:41:28 PM
Boris Johnson in the hospital!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 06, 2020, 11:29:52 AM
Boris Johnson in the hospital!

Victory!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 06, 2020, 05:26:51 PM
Now in ICU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 07, 2020, 10:20:30 AM
Now in ICU.

And now intubated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 07, 2020, 10:45:41 AM
So, no being as keenly turned into UK politics as you folks, what happens if it dies? Does Dominic Raab succeed him the way Pence would Trump? A new election? Parliament elects the PM, yes? Not really the people?

Also, this doesn't change anything in terms of Brexit. I know he's the big face of it, but what's done is done. The UK just gets rid of their clown prince.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 07, 2020, 11:07:09 AM
So, no being as keenly turned into UK politics as you folks, what happens if it dies? Does Dominic Raab succeed him the way Pence would Trump? A new election? Parliament elects the PM, yes? Not really the people?

Also, this doesn't change anything in terms of Brexit. I know he's the big face of it, but what's done is done. The UK just gets rid of their clown prince.

There's no clear line of succession in the UK.

Raab is the "unofficial" deputy PM (there's always an unofficial deputy PM, for just this sort of situation, and they're selected not based on position or rank but based on the whim of the PM).

If Johnson dies, Raab forms a provisional government (this is done by a quick vote) and the Queen asks the majority party to select an appropriate candidate to become the PM (which could take longer).

As for Brexit, all of this (not just Johnson) will result in yet another extension of the transition day so that we can spend the rest of our fucking lives hearing about Brexit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 07, 2020, 06:07:38 PM
I can’t wait for Brexit 2021!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 08, 2020, 10:00:12 AM
I can’t wait for Brexit 2021!

Starbucks will run out of light roast on July 12th, 2021, so they'll have to delay Brexit to December 2022 while they sort out the crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 08, 2020, 02:33:38 PM
Except that Anal Lube will be in short supply come December 2022 so Brexit 2023!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 11, 2020, 11:05:04 AM
I love to sunbath at my bathroom window.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 12, 2020, 11:44:32 AM
The farmer's market today was weird. Full PPE required, armed and masked guards at the gate, 24 people allowed in at one time with a strict 15 minute shopping limit enforced.

Everything around here is starting to feel weird. All the stores are adopting similar procedures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 13, 2020, 01:35:20 PM
Rural WV is still business as usual though I wanted to kill an old lady who refused to local distance as the recycling center. I even lied and said "I'd been sick" and she just shook her head and went about her business, which was apparently getting as close et me as possible with intercourse being involved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 14, 2020, 06:48:10 PM
I coughed in the face of an old woman today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 15, 2020, 09:43:20 AM
I coughed in the face of an old woman today.

Your death rate is slowing down. Gotta catch up!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on April 18, 2020, 08:59:01 AM
I thought about protesting City Hall, defense-rifle in hands, against Confinement but I remembered I’m in Europe and we don’t get guns or school shootings. Boy, do I miss those Thoughts & Prayers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on April 18, 2020, 09:41:52 AM
I thought about protesting City Hall, defense-rifle in hands, against Confinement but I remembered I’m in Europe and we don’t get guns or school shootings. Boy, do I miss those Thoughts & Prayers.

Oh, you're missing all the fun!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 19, 2020, 06:02:44 PM
I thought about protesting City Hall, defense-rifle in hands, against Confinement but I remembered I’m in Europe and we don’t get guns or school shootings. Boy, do I miss those Thoughts & Prayers.

<3
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on April 27, 2020, 12:25:01 PM
Its been a long time since one of these have made me laugh as hard as this one did. Nubbins, I think you in particular will really appreciate it.

https://youtu.be/xMQPZe7cD7w
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on April 30, 2020, 01:55:26 PM
Its been a long time since one of these have made me laugh as hard as this one did. Nubbins, I think you in particular will really appreciate it.

https://youtu.be/xMQPZe7cD7w

hahahahaha holy shit that was great. He’s right about the pollen, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on January 16, 2022, 01:28:23 PM
So... I think I finally had the 'rona, but I never tested positive. In fact, I tested negative four times in two weeks. (Five if you count the antigen test I took, which I don't.) I had mild cold symptoms that pre-March 2020 wouldn't have even kept me home. Sore throat on day one then sinus-y stuff that cleared up completely in a little over a week. No cough. No fever. No anything else.

The missus tested positive after she got the same exact symptoms. Again, she was better in a little over a week.

Unvaxxed idiots seems to still be having a hard time with it. Thoughts and prayers, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on January 16, 2022, 03:36:21 PM
Almost everyone we know has it now. We're still convinced we got it way back at the beginning, but we've been super clear since then. In fact, the last two years have been the healthiest of my life! We load up on elderberry, multivitamins, and other shit. And we're super paranoid about new people, hand shaking, etc. It's very much been about our pod and nobody else since March 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on January 17, 2022, 05:48:10 PM
In fact, the last two years have been the healthiest of my life!

Me too! I was a little sad when I got sick in Hawaii. It was a good run of no colds for almost two years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on January 18, 2022, 09:33:36 AM
In fact, the last two years have been the healthiest of my life!

Me too! I was a little sad when I got sick in Hawaii. It was a good run of no colds for almost two years.

So -- proof positive that people are fucking disgusting and we should stick to our tightly controlled pod from now on!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on January 18, 2022, 04:23:45 PM
In fact, the last two years have been the healthiest of my life!

Me too! I was a little sad when I got sick in Hawaii. It was a good run of no colds for almost two years.

So -- proof positive that people are fucking disgusting and we should stick to our tightly controlled pod from now on!

You're not wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on March 11, 2022, 01:14:42 PM
Broke out of my self-imposed quarantine and hit the local brewery this week.

Around here, it's as if the pandemic never happened. Still some folks wearing masks in places like the grocery store, but there's more maskless than not. And WV still has enough hospitalizations to put a strain on the system.

Great piece in the Post this AM about the needed investment in disease tracking infrastructure. It's big brother-y for sure, but in my increasing old-man-ness, I'd rather be under constant surveillance if I can live out the apocalypse in relative peace.

"Sir, Subject 345-89B is masturbating again. Should we send shock treatment to his chip?"

"As long he's alone, it's fine. Just log it, ensign."
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on March 11, 2022, 03:07:07 PM
We're fully maskless back here. Hospitalizations are down because we're True Blue and everyone's been jabbed and those who haven't were disappeared in the night.

I've kept (generally) to the mask rules, though. And still avoid crowded areas. I'm really sad that things are getting back to normal. I mean, just when it was getting interesting, you know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: Nubbins on March 12, 2022, 09:10:03 AM
Yep, it's been maskless here for a while, but I've only recently quit wearing mine into stores and stuff. I'm slowly but surely building a life around myself where we don't need to leave our home for an extended period of time... maybe a month or two at this point.

I do find myself kinda looking wistfully back at two years ago... how little we had to do all day, etc. But then I remember how fucking terrifying it all was and I'm glad that we're where we are, even if Georgia is backwards as fuck, for the most part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on May 25, 2022, 11:40:02 AM
So...been down for the count with COVID for the last few days. Fever, chills, cognitive problems...so weak I could barely get to the bathroom. Totally kicked my ass, and felt like nothing I've ever felt before.

Today's the first day in three and a half days I've been able to get out of bed and it's exhausted me.

Spent most of this time worried my own name would end up in the Obit thread...
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on May 25, 2022, 03:51:31 PM
Oof. No good. Hope it lets go of you soon.

Are you all vaxxed up? I seem to remember you starting off with J&J.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on May 26, 2022, 01:50:47 PM
Oof. No good. Hope it lets go of you soon.

Are you all vaxxed up? I seem to remember you starting off with J&J.

Yep. And the Pfizer booster. But I didn't get the fourth one.

So I'm at day 5 and am just now able to properly move around the house and prepare my own food. The S.O.is at day 8 and remains exhausted. The smallest chores are like moving a truck with your teeth.

The doc says expect this for 1-3 weeks, with potential "exhaustion relapses" for 1-3 months.

Gotta say... I haven't necessarily been cavalier about COVID, but I have kind of relaxed myself along with everybody else these past few months. The "I'm over this" attitude. This has changed my mind. Back to being strict about my approach to all of this. It doesn't help that just about everyone I know (all vaccinated) are also falling to it, with varying degrees of intensity. Several of our friends and allies from the March book convention are still sick after getting it two months ago. One of my editors has had to quit -- they're 28 and they're in therapy to learn how to speak, read, and write again. Like a stroke victim.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: RottingCorpse on May 27, 2022, 11:01:41 AM
My wife and I count ourselves lucky that our reaction to it was mild.

Yeah, I've still been masking up in public places, meetings, etc. And we're in a another surge right now. Lots of folks getting it.

RE: Fourth shot... I haven't gotten it either. I was told that being under 50 (barely) and healthy, to wait for the booster in the fall, in which some of the more recent variants will be dialed in. There's been a few studies / concerns about how much vaccine we're dosing ourselves with. Not that the vaccine itself is harmful, but that our immune system gets overloaded with vaccine in a way that keeps it on high alert. (Theres word for it that I forgot.) Still lots of studies going on about it.

Long COVID is real. I know plenty of folks dealing with it. Rest up. Get as well as you can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on May 27, 2022, 12:11:48 PM
Today's the first day I woke up feeling like a human being. And my first day wearing clothes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on August 09, 2022, 06:31:29 AM
I'd be interested to read data on whether or not National Average IQs have improved post-COVID deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on August 09, 2022, 09:48:27 AM
I'd be interested to read data on whether or not National Average IQs have improved post-COVID deaths.

Not enough of us died! I was hoping for a culling of around three billion or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on August 09, 2022, 01:28:49 PM
I'd be interested to read data on whether or not National Average IQs have improved post-COVID deaths.

Not enough of us died! I was hoping for a culling of around three billion or so.

Mostly foreign types, obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: nacho on August 10, 2022, 08:48:16 AM
I'd be interested to read data on whether or not National Average IQs have improved post-COVID deaths.

Not enough of us died! I was hoping for a culling of around three billion or so.

Mostly foreign types, obviously.

Of course! Murica 4evar!
Title: Re: Coronavirus & Lime
Post by: monkey! on August 11, 2022, 08:11:57 AM
I'd be interested to read data on whether or not National Average IQs have improved post-COVID deaths.

Not enough of us died! I was hoping for a culling of around three billion or so.

Mostly foreign types, obviously.

Of course! Murica 4evar!

Dirty commie.