Author Topic: Coronavirus & Lime  (Read 14456 times)

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Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #45 on: March 16, 2020, 09:29:13 PM »
I don't think I can let the mail just pile up in the mailbox for the next four to six months.

I get what's you're saying about transfer points, but if everything they're telling us about how to stop this is wrong, then I'm down with the "herd immunity" UK and all the partying 20-30 year-olds who are like, "Fuck it, I'll roll the dice with my immune system." Somebody tell me "Don't touch anything at all every again," and I'll do it. The problem of course, is that nobody knows what's right or wrong.

I'm not going to live in fear. Twenty days straight of that kind of anxiety and I'll eat one of those bullets I bought a few days ago. Living fearless doesn't mean I'm not self-quarantining and isolating, but this isn't going to be over in three weeks. I'm doubtful it'll be over in four months. Certain breaks in the quarantine are going to be a necessity. It's too late not to get it anyway, right? It's about flattening the curve.


Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #46 on: March 16, 2020, 11:27:52 PM »
Nacho just texted me about National Guard boots in the ground in MoCo to enforce bar closures. I came back with a joke about being glad I’m in WV... at least until we’re five days out from grocery store shelves being restocked.

Then I read this:

https://www.wvpublic.org/post/coronavirus-testing-limited-wva-its-population-high-risk-thats-why-we-should-distance

Quote
Coronavirus Testing Is Limited in W.Va., Its Population Is High-Risk. That's Why We Should Distance

One of the reasons coronavirus is so scary is that it is possible to be a carrier for the disease and not know it. Some people are asymptomatic and some people have mild symptoms. But as of Monday, West Virginia has only tested 84 people for coronavirus – out of a state of 1.8 million. Critics say that’s not nearly enough.

If you wanted to check to see if you had coronavirus so you could make sure you’re in the clear before going to visit an elderly relative – could you?

The short answer? No – not in West Virginia, at least.

“So currently, I have enough tests and supplies of everything else for maybe 500 people,” state commissioner for public health Dr. Cathy Slemp said at a Monday news conference.

Slemp said West Virginia has that many coronavirus testing kits only because she was able to make use of resources that would have normally been dedicated otherwise.

“I borrowed extraction kits from my flu testing to fill in to expand my capacity,” she said.

West Virginians aren’t getting widely tested because there simply are not enough supplies to test people -- even nationwide. The state has put in an order for more kits, but supplies are on backorder with no sense of when the order will be fulfilled.

“I'm not stopping flu testing,” Slemp said. “In fact, it's actually really helpful for this because we try to exclude flu before we do COVID testing.”

If someone has the flu, she says it’s highly unlikely they also have coronavirus. But, because supplies are in high demand, for now, the only people who will be tested are those who meet a strict criteria.

In a press release Monday, the DHHR specified tests would be reserved for really sick people already hospitalized with symptoms of coronavirus or people at risk of complications including the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions or people at high risk of having been infected, which includes someone who has been to a current epicenter recently or who has been in contact with an infected person.

The DHHR says that their approach is similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on testing.

But the CDC guidelines have been a point of controversy, with other major public health groups like the World Health Organization saying the U.S. has not gone far enough.

“South Korea, as a country, they tested very broadly,” WVU Health Sciences Vice President and Executive Dean Dr. Clay Marsh said.

Marsh spoke last week with West Virginia Public Broadcasting and explained different approaches — and outcomes — with testing.

“And part of the way that they started to control the infection is — instead of just asking everybody to self-quarantine, if you've had any potential exposure — they started to test a ton of their population. So they actually knew who was infected and who wasn't,” Marsh said. 

“And, optimally, you find that out and you quarantine the people that are infected. You don't quarantine the people who aren't. So that's really a step that we're moving toward, which will allow us, I think, to be much smarter about how we're approaching this from a public health protection standpoint.”

As Marsh points out, South Korea has been lauded for its efficient testing. They made testing free and fast — residents can pull up in their vehicle, get swabbed and then get results usually the next day via text.

South Korea’s death rate is 0.9 percent. In the United States, the rate is 1.7 percent – nearly double.

It’s not just testing supplies that are the problem – it’s that the labs don’t have the technology necessary to test. West Virginia’s state lab wasn’t set up until Saturday, March 7th (tests were sent instead to the CDC in Atlanta) and commercial labs didn’t get going until this week. Some hospitals are also hoping to be able to run their own tests soon but for now are having to send them off to external agencies.

But with supplies on backorder, and few labs to test in, state health agencies say they must focus on testing just those with the highest risk. Even though they believe coronavirus to already be in West Virginia. And, when it comes, it could be catastrophic.

Slemp said West Virginia has a high-risk population because the disease seems to target the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions. A report from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows West Virginia is the most at-risk state, with more than half of adults over 18 at risk of contracting the coronavirus.

She said now is the time to act to prevent a disaster. But that West Virginia likely will not be prioritized to receive supplies because other states have more cases.

“You need to be prioritizing states, not just on numbers of cases -- but on risk. We have a high-risk population. If we don't have a lot right here now that's great. If you send them now, we act now, give a chance to really, really reduce it much more,” Slemp said. “If you're going to just where it's already happening you'll be too late.”

If you can’t test everyone, Slemp said, the only other option is to isolate everyone, reducing risk through contact.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 11:28:43 AM by RottingCorpse »

Offline nacho

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #47 on: March 17, 2020, 08:40:18 AM »
Not saying let the mail pile up and live in fear. I'm saying it's pointless dark ages thinking to think you're okay if you wash down after you pick up the mail. I mean, yes, you should do that, but that still doesn't make picking up the mail an safe choice. Just like thinking having groceries delivered is safe. It's sort of upstairs/downstairs thinking. The service professionals don't exist in our eyes, therefore they aren't human, therefore they aren't serious vectors of infection. The mailman's okay, the UPS man is okay, the maids are okay. And all that goes on without interruption and very few people are even taking the moderate precautions you are. 

Everyone's going to be exposed eventually. And as that article you link above hints: This is the sort of DNA-based virus that everyone will get and probably has to get.

Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #48 on: March 17, 2020, 11:39:24 AM »
We are pretty sure we had it and defeated it a few weeks ago.

We think Missus RC may have had it as well. She flew back from Costa Rica (an international flight) on February 15. A little over a week later, she started feeling symptoms, thinking it was just a cold. It lasted three weeks, though she still has a cough here and there. We didn't think it was the Coronavirus, because she had a good deal of phlegm, and her temperature never got higher than 98.9. At the same time, she complained often that "this doesn't feel like a regular cold." She also said she felt like someone was "pressing on her chest," particularly her right side. She did say she had trouble breathing and that she particularly felt it on the right.

For all intents and purposes, she's better now. I'm not showing any symptoms other than normal Spring allergies. (I got hit bad with allergies last year, probably because of the WV move.) If she had it, I'm certainly an asymptomatic carrier. Again, if we believe anything, 80% of folks get a mild case or don't show symptoms at all.

Without the ability to test, I feel like it's all moot anyway, if not a wee bit scary. There's really nothing to be done until it gets really bad, and then all they can do is try to keep you alive. A vaccine is a at least a year away.

Good times.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 01:45:32 PM by RottingCorpse »

Offline nacho

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #49 on: March 17, 2020, 11:41:59 AM »
We are pretty sure we had it and defeated it a few weeks ago.

We think Missus RC may have had it as well. She flew back from Costa Rica (an international flight) on February 15. A little over a week later, she started feeling symptoms, thinking it was just a cold. It lasted three weeks, though she's still has a cough here and there. We didn't think it was the Coronavirus, because she had a good deal of phlegm, and her temperature never got higher than 98.9. At the same time, she complained often that "this doesn't feel like a regular cold." She also said she felt like someone was "pressing on her chest," particularly her right side. She did say she had trouble breathing and that she particularly felt it on the right.



So...exactly the same for us. My fever did spike to 100-101 for two days, then broke. I still have a cough and shortness of breath.

Offline Nubbins

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #50 on: March 17, 2020, 03:19:30 PM »
Well, this is kinda horrifying.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can refresh and watch the numbers climb in real time.
8=o tation

Offline Nubbins

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #51 on: March 17, 2020, 04:35:16 PM »
8=o tation

Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #52 on: March 17, 2020, 04:41:00 PM »
Well, this is kinda horrifying.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can refresh and watch the numbers climb in real time.

That's better than the kid's thing for sure. Nacho, can the Throne Maiden tell me if *this* one is emptying my bank account?

I get a bit of solace from that it's still a 4% total fatality rate which is consistent with everything we've seen so far. Again though, we're not testing like we should.

6:00 PM briefing from the WV governor tonight. (He will not be taking questions. Press is not invited... which is something I want to get deeper into at some point.)
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 05:06:48 PM by RottingCorpse »

Offline Nubbins

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #53 on: March 17, 2020, 04:52:18 PM »
Well, this is kinda horrifying.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can refresh and watch the numbers climb in real time.

That's better than the kid's thing for sure. Nacho, can the Throne Maiden tell me if *this*one is emptying my bank account?

I get a bit of solace from that it's still a 4%  total fatality rate which is consistent with everything we've seen so far. Again, though we're not testing like we should.

6:00 PM briefing from the WV governor tonight. (He will not be taking questions. Press is not invited.., which is something I want to get deeper into at some point.)

I've had it up all day and watched the US totals jump at least 800 cases since this morning. I feel like updates on the testing front are painfully slow.
8=o tation

Offline nacho

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #54 on: March 17, 2020, 05:32:25 PM »
That's better than the kid's thing for sure. Nacho, can the Throne Maiden tell me if *this* one is emptying my bank account?

Nobody knows anything anymore. Throne Maiden-land is upside down. They now have ten cases on campus.

Quote
I get a bit of solace from that it's still a 4% total fatality rate which is consistent with everything we've seen so far. Again though, we're not testing like we should.

4% is bad if it runs away infection wise. 1918 was in the 4% range. And our population is five times what it was then.

Quote
6:00 PM briefing from the WV governor tonight. (He will not be taking questions. Press is not invited... which is something I want to get deeper into at some point.)

MD and VA were good about taking questions and having a conversation. So there's still some reasonable people around here at least.

In "my company is doomed" news:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3

Even a couple weeks of this can put me down for good now.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 06:08:07 PM by RottingCorpse »

Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #55 on: March 17, 2020, 06:06:05 PM »
I've read so many articles about it today, but they all say the same things; social distancing to flatten the curve and construction of more hospitals and manufacturing of more ventilators.

Two interesting articles of note:

This is from MIT (I think?) and it mentions both how we probably want to flatten the curve more than we think we need to, BUT not flatten it so much that we reduce the infection rate so far don't allow people to develop the herd immunity over time. Though I'll take that over Italy.

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough

The second one is more future thinking and are probably better ideas to think about beyond the current crisis. That aside, I agree with it's summation that Covid-19 may be just the beginning in terms of the chaos that could be coming.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-16/coronavirus-foreshadow-s-bigger-disruptions-in-future

In "my company is doomed" news:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3

Even a couple weeks of this can put me down for good now.

I'm not hopeful for government bailouts of small businesses at this point, but my heart is with you.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 10:50:25 AM by RottingCorpse »

Offline monkey!

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #56 on: March 18, 2020, 06:30:37 AM »
MonkeyNET reports from France:

Day 2 of Lockdown. I should’ve stocked up more on wine.
There will come a day for every man when he will relish the prospect of eating his own shit. That day has yet to come for me.

Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #57 on: March 18, 2020, 09:43:18 AM »
MonkeyNET reports from France:

Day 2 of Lockdown. I should’ve stocked up more on wine.

Yeah, I'm not sure I've taken the booze considerations seriously. I'm mostly a beer drinker and while I can do the Euro warm beer thing, I like it refrigerated which is a space suck when you're also trying to keep mass quantities of food around. I typically get a few four packs from our local brewery about once a week and dole them out. I've been drinking a bourbon on Fridays for the past few months, but fear jumping to that exclusively because, you know, alcoholism. I do have 3-4 bottles of very good bourbon from a recent trip to Kentucky. We have a few bottles of wine, but not enough to last if I switch to that from beer.

Probably another shopping trip in the next couple days to restock booze and food. We're going through our entire pantry and are going to try to plan out meals for the next three weeks to a month.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 10:51:31 AM by RottingCorpse »

Offline nacho

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #58 on: March 18, 2020, 10:14:29 AM »
Monkey, is it true you're fined if you go outside? How's your business doing?

RC: as for this just being the beginning, yep. That's been the job of the virus since pre-history. It's always looking to mutate and change and get bigger and better. There's the argument that our entire DNA and evolutionary history is based on contracting and fighting viruses. Those of us alive today are the ones who have survived 12,000 years worth of cullings.

But, as of the 20th century, we're sort of resetting ourselves back to square one thanks to vaccinations and a better understanding of what a virus is.

Not an anti-vacc argument! As long as we choose to live in tight-knit, stationary communities, we need vaccinations. But it is a double-edged sword, because the viruses are going to continue to try and find ways in and, once one does, we'll be back to the early cullings (which are the real reason why the hominid tree ended up only having one branch). 


Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Coronavirus & Lime
« Reply #59 on: March 18, 2020, 10:41:47 AM »
This is making the rounds today. It's super science-y and using Great Britain as the model, but really breaks down the strategies of mitigation vs. suppression of the virus.

Basically every model is saying the worst is yet to come, and that "flattening the curve" (the phrase we'll all eventually grow to hate) is the only hope we've got right now. Check the appendix which has graphs for the US. They're expecting a 1918 style autumn resurgence with the worst outbreak coming next Christmas. The way I read it, *if* we do everything we're supposed to, we have about eight months to build hospitals, manufacture ventilators, and prepare for the wave that's coming.

"Winter is coming."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

And per the old "post the whole article," I downloaded the PDF... just in case. GS isn't letting me post it, but I can email it to anybody if this goes missing.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 10:58:36 AM by RottingCorpse »