Coronavirus & Lime

[nacho]

The Throne Maiden warns that the scuttlebutt is that that kid's site is loaded with malware and can't be trusted.

But, then, we are in the midst of disinformation with this crisis. Which makes it ten times more terrifying for me.

Meanwhile, the economic impact is already resoundingly apocalyptic on a personal level with me. I had one book come out this month that will now see a huge spike in returns due to cancelled events and conferences. What is normally a 10% return rate is already at 40%, and that will climb. All events for that book through may were cancelled last week. We may see a 70-80% return rate, which is how small presses go bankrupt. Three other books coming out in May see pre-orders at only 50% what they should be this month so far.

I lost all our subrights conventions (London, Beijing, Frankfurt). If BEA and the NY rights fair go down, then I'll be out thousands (maybe tens of thousands) with no way to recover it.

AWP was a massive hit. A total disaster.

Even if the course corrects itself within four weeks, it'll take me till next spring to dig out from this. And if we continue through June, like all the experts are saying, I may have to start cancelling or postponing future contracts. And, god, what is this doing to the smaller presses...? Some of them spend all year just saving up for AWP.

So, while it seems logical that the virus would be good for folks who want to sit home and read books, it's actually not because the entire small press world is reliant on activity and motion -- events, conferences, fairs, etc. Getting the word out via social media and elsewhere is near impossible when there are 3-4 million books published every year.

Ahem...anyway, tell all your friends to support me.

[RottingCorpse]

The Throne Maiden warns that the scuttlebutt is that that kid's site is loaded with malware and can't be trusted.

But, then, we are in the midst of disinformation with this crisis. Which makes it ten times more terrifying for me.

The numbers/data on the kid's site seems sound to me. Thats said, this whole situation seems a hacker's paradise. It wouldn't surprise me if somebody got in there and futzed around. Did you hear about infection maps that were malware infested? Anyway, I've clicked on the kid's site at east five times, so any damage is done on my decrepit MacBook.

Meanwhile, the economic impact is already resoundingly apocalyptic on a personal level with me.

I'm sorry to hear about that. I've read a couple pieces about how the economic impact of this will be with us far longer than the health emergency. If I were you, I would assume the worst case financial scenario and do everything you can to mitigate the effects of it. If it means making bold cuts (such as postponing future contracts), do it. Shrink SFWP back down. Survival is the name of the game right now. Not profit.

I tried to get Missus RC to talk about the long term financial possibilities (including the worst case scenario), but she was reluctant to engage. ("Too soon," she said.) I did a quick look at our finances with the assumption that one or both of us are possibly no longer employed come August. (One of the reasons my employer dragged their feet so long before making a call about going online were the not-so-far reaching economic implications. It takes only a minority percentage of students asking for refunds on room and board to shut us down.) It's not great, but we're likely better off than a lot of people.

Be planning and thinking financially in the long term even as you focus on not getting sick in the short term. Again, plan for the worst. Even if it doesn't come to fruition.

[nacho]

It's hard to plan for the worst when you're part of the gig economy. When I was getting a paycheck, I could plan for the worst by putting a percentage aside. But now I'm in a volatile, unpredictable business and can't create gentle cushions to land on. I have plenty of safety nets in place, but the other problem is that, when this blows over, the recovery is going to take a year, probably starting at that point. Because this is also a seasonal economy I've embraced.

The last two weeks have used up half my safety nets. The next 4-6 weeks, if things don't change, will use up the rest.

It's hard to plan ahead when all your plans are based on whether or not someone will buy a book. And as everyone else tightens their belts, they're not going to be as supportive as useful. In fact, an environment where people need to be told to plan ahead and think financially in the long term is exactly the sort of environment that can shut me down.

[RottingCorpse]

I was part of that gig economy once and I certainly feel you. It was always kind of feast or famine and very hard to create any kind of cushion.

Can you pay your bills for six months? That was always the freelance cushion I was taught to have; prepare for what happens if you don't work for six months. I was very rarely there as a freelancer. (Usually, I was closer to two months.)

I'm the last guy to take business advice from, but I highly suggest shrinking your overhead costs as much as possible. Again, assume your sales are going to continue to drop drastically. Don't try to function at the level you're functioning. Cut the flow of money going out. Yes, this means shrinking your business, but it also means you can match how much you're spending more closely to how much you're making. Everything in our economic life is going on hold, so you should go on hold too. I imagine you'll have make a couple of very hard choices, but make them.

I realize it's easy for me to sit over here and make suggestions when people are simply buying far less of your product than they were a few weeks ago. What I'm saying is (if it's possible) don't let the business siphon off money from you just trying to keep the lights burning as bright as they are. Mothball parts of the house until the storm passes with the understanding that the storm may indeed destroy those mothballed wings.

[nacho]

I paid for all the print runs two weeks ago, so too late to scale back. All the money got dumped and now is the cool down period. So...horrible timing.

Restaurants are starting to close. Larry Hogan just said that it's "a crime" if any bars hold a St. Patrick's Day celebration.   

[nacho]

Italy's at a 10% death rate. It's starting to spike elsewhere. And, here, bars and stores are starting to close in my neighborhood.

[RottingCorpse]

Rural WV is acting like nothing's the matter. Though I had to go to my office earlier to get stuff I forgot and there was a particularly eerie quiet for a Sunday afternoon. I didn't see any people while I was out and I literally had a Clorox wipe in each hand for any door handle I had to touch. When I came back, Missus RC  helped me clean stuff and myself as if I were coming back from a spacewalk.

[nacho]

Okay, so all our Bethesda Row restaurants and bars are limited seating, with all parking spots cordoned off and reserved for curbside pickup of food. I'll take a wander later today and see if I can get some pics.

[nacho]

Wow...


https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-maryland-virginia-schools-closed-monday-as-coronavirus-cases-hit-94/2242447/

Maryland will shut down all bars, restaurants, movie theaters and gyms at 5 p.m. Monday to stop the spread of coronavirus, the governor says.

The state will also ban all gatherings of more than 50 people, Gov. Larry Hogan said.

Restaurants can offer carryout and drive-thru service.

[RottingCorpse]

We're ten days behind Italy as far as numbers go. I'll be happy have the argument that we over-reacted, but I don't think that's it.

This is is a FB post from my friend who's a nurse at the local hospital here in north central WV.

Honestly, I've been impressed so far with the lack of swarming to the ED. What truly worries me is when WV does get its first case, how people are going to react. The truth is, we are still a small, rural hospital. We are fully prepared to tackle this virus head on, like we are any other day. However, it will become completely overwhelming to have people report to the ED en mass for the slightest symptom simply out of fear. School closure and social distancing will allow for the virus to slow its spread. This will help us stay ahead of the game. This will allow us to evaluate and manage a smaller number of severely ill people at any given time. We only have so many ventilators and ICU beds. The fact is, most people will only experience mild to moderate symptoms, ranging from influenza-type to pneumonia-type. When you enter the ED with mild symptoms, you will be tested for influenza. And you MAY be tested for corona virus. Chances are, if you are healthy and you have mild symptoms, you will not be. Just as during flu season, we don't always test for the flu. What is ALSO happening when you enter the ED with mild symptoms is you are placing others at risk. Do you have the flu? Do you have COVID-19? Either way, everything you touch and everyone you come into contact with becomes susceptible to transmission of your illness. There is no cure for a virus. A virus lasts 7-21 days in the body, depending on many factors. Symptom management is key. Symptoms can be managed at home until they can't. This means that you take Tylenol for your fever. You take Mucinex and Tussin for your cough. You cough into a tissue and throw it away. You sanitize behind yourself everywhere you go to keep your family safe. If, in the course of the illness, your symptoms develop past the point of being managed at home...your fever will not break with over the counter meds, you are truly unable to catch your breath, your cough becomes so severe that you can't breathe just sitting still, then, please...please come into the ED where we are fully prepared and capable to assess and manage your symptoms. If 1 in every 20 people develop severe symptoms and we only see the truly ill, there is less of a strain on resources, less of the chance that an ED nurse or physician will contract the virus and less of a chance that the elderly lady in the bed next to you who broke her hip will be infected. Please do not let fear drive you. This should be taken seriously, but is nothing over which to panic. Human coronavirus is something our bodies have not encountered before. Rest and hydrate, so that they have the energy to fight it. Let our bodies do their job. Save the ED for the most ill. The knowledge of whether you have COVID-19 is not gong to change the treatment of symptoms, so what does it matter if you're diagnosed? So you can say you had it? There's no prize or accomplishment in being able to say you were officially diagnosed. Stay home. Stay vigilant with keeping your space clean. Stay well.

[nacho]

I don't think we're over-reacting. In fact, I'd say the Feds have dropped the ball big time. Thank god the States are taking control as best they can (like Maryland's lockdown today).

But then we see shit like the clusterfuck at O'Hare. We've got, what, a million or so Americans in a desperate scramble to get back to the US from abroad and we're only scanning a small portion of them and, when we do, we break the system in 39 seconds.

[RottingCorpse]

I don't think we're over-reacting. In fact, I'd say the Feds have dropped the ball big time. Thank god the States are taking control as best they can (like Maryland's lockdown today).

But then we see shit like the clusterfuck at O'Hare. We've got, what, a million or so Americans in a desperate scramble to get back to the US from abroad and we're only scanning a small portion of them and, when we do, we break the system in 39 seconds.

I'm very worried about my super-conservative, vaguely ass-backwards state government of poor states like the one I currently live in. Again, lots of business as usual here.

How are you dealing with the mail? We open everything immediately in a very small area. Then we wipe down the area where the mail was opened and wash our hands. I feel totally fucking paranoid and neurotic when I do this, but again... better safe than sorry.

Both my wife and I are expecting to get sick. We've talked a bit about it. Our hope and summation is that we'd get mild cases which wouldn't require us to go to the hospitals. Right now, I haven't heard of any good slid, "Do this at home if you get sick?" All this modern medicine we have and it's really just the lottery of whether your immune system can handle it.

[RottingCorpse]

Heh-heh.

And by "heh-heh," I mean:


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cyberattack-hhs-meant-slow-coronavirus-response-sources

Suspicious cyberactivity targeting HHS tied to coronavirus response, sources say
The activity happened Sunday night, sources said.

The Department of Health and Human Services experienced suspicious cyberactivity Sunday night related to its coronavirus response, administration sources confirmed to ABC News Monday.

The suspicious activity HHS was not a hack but it may have been a distributed denial of service -- or DDOS -- attack, according to multiple sources.

The distinction is important because there was no apparent breach of the HHS system, which could interfere with critical functions of the lead agency responding to the coronavirus contagion. A DDOS effort enlists automated users -- called bots -- to overwhelm a public-facing system in order to slow it down or even paralyze it.

Officials believe any coordinated effort against HHS -- if there was one -- was not particularly successful and are satisfied that the system was not significantly affected.

Nevertheless, the concern is that foreign actors might attempt to exploit the COVID-19 crisis to achieve some of their anti-American goals.

“As federal state and local governments focus on handling the current public health crisis, national security officials are also tracking other threats -- in particular those posed by terrorist or extremist groups and foreign adversaries who may seek to take advantage of all of the attention being focused on the coronavirus and conduct an attack,” said John Cohen, a former acting Undersecretary of the Department of Homeland Security and contributor to ABC News.

At this point, analysts are trying to determine the origin of the activity targeting HHS. Officials have told Congress that the intelligence community fears that entities connected to Russia would try to use the current situation to sow even more chaos in the American public.

The FBI declined to comment.

“We are aware of a cyber incident related to the Health and Human Services computer networks and the federal government is investigating this incident thoroughly," NSC spokesman John Ullyot said in the statement. "HHS and federal government cybersecurity professionals are continuously monitoring and taking appropriate actions to secure our federal networks. HHS and federal networks are functioning normally at this time."

Intelligence and cyber officials are investigating to see if there is a connection to Sunday's messages saying there would be a national quarantine instituted, but as of now, they have not linked the two. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the Cyber Security arm of the Department of Homeland Security, is saying it is supporting its government partners, and is highlighting a number of steps that it's taken in previous weeks.

“CISA will continue to support our partners at HHS as they protect their IT systems," CISA spokesperson Sara Sendek said in a statement. "CISA has taken a number of steps over the last several weeks to increase cybersecurity preparedness across federal civilian agencies, including enhanced monitoring, issuing recommendations as agencies shift to telework, and identifying and protecting particularly important systems supporting COVID response efforts. We’re confident that the measures we’ve all put into place are sufficient, and we will stay on the lookout for and defend against malicious activity.”

“HHS has an IT infrastructure with risk-based security controls continuously monitored in order to detect and address cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities. On Sunday, we became aware of a significant increase in activity on HHS cyber infrastructure and are fully operational as we actively investigate the matter. Early on while preparing and responding to COVID-19, HHS put extra protections in place. We are coordinating with federal law enforcement and remain vigilant and focused on ensuring the integrity of our IT infrastructure, HHS spokesperson Caitlin Oakley said in a statement.

The attack was first reported by Bloomberg.

[nacho]

We are pretty sure we had it and defeated it a few weeks ago.

Maryland is full on Omega Man. Crazy times here.

We don't give a fuck about the mail. You can't stop it like that. You got it the moment you picked up the mail. Wiping it down after the fact is Dark Ages thinking. That's like licking the corpse and then going home and washing your mouth out.

[nacho]

We don't give a fuck about the mail. You can't stop it like that. You got it the moment you picked up the mail. Wiping it down after the fact is Dark Ages thinking. That's like licking the corpse and then going home and washing your mouth out.

I'm, frankly, exhausted about the whole approach to hygiene. I mean, the Today Show and the Natonal Nighly News had 10 minute segments on.... HOW TO WASH YOUR HANDS!!!

Is this fucking 1370 AD?

Same thing with the mail. If it was positive, then you got it when you collected the mail. Period. This isn't a bad spirit you can dispel in the mud room with sage and prayer.

And I hear that approach from everyone. Oh, we're ordering from Amazon because that's safe and clean. Oh, we got our groceries delivered because that's safe and clean.

It's the 2020 version of dancing on one foot around the fire and shaking the doll to keep the ancestor spirits away.