Okay...hour 52 and no activity, so I go and open it up. First -- out comes the airlock. And -- plop! -- the little airtight washer for the airlock hole drops into the bucket. Oh fuck.
I get it open and...it's beautiful! It's perfect! It's filled almost to the top with a beautiful, healthy, krausen (or whatever they call it). So, if I'd waited just another day, all would have been fine.
I quickly got the lid back on (the washer sunk) and clumsily taped the airlock down like a retard, sanitizing everything behind me.
Chances are, because I opened it and fucked with it, that I ruined this batch. But...at least I know that I didn't do anything wrong. And I've learned not to go by the book. If it takes longer than 48 hours, then so be it.
Fingers crossed -- it's early still, and everything was sanitized, and it was only exposed to the air for a couple minutes, and it should be pretty much airtight again. Maybe my fucking around will be forgiven.