Archives > Newsday Special: 2008 Election

FiveThirtyEight.com

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Cassander:
so the founder of this website: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/   was on Colbert Report the other night.  it's a pretty interesting site that basically culls all the data from national and local election polls, then crunches the data.  sure, sure that's been done before, but on this site, the pollsters themselves are ranked and weighted due to their bias/failure to design a poll question clearly/methods for weeding out facetious answers, whathaveyou.  by trying to reduce the pollsters margin of error right off the top, then comparing the poll numbers against historical and temporal data, the guys who run this site are basically trying to distill the numbers into something more reliable. 

one interesting table, which comes from running their daily formula through 10,000 repetitions:

Tatertots:
I like those numbers. Like, a lot.

I think we've posted that site here before, but it deserves it's own thread.

fajwat:
as soon as you try to un-bias something using your own judgment... hey, you re-bias it.  I prefer empirical filters, but "past performance does not guarantee future results".  I prefer to use a few filters.  Anyone got a right wing one? 

http://www.perspctv.com/ displays numbers from http://electoral-vote.org/ , CNN and their own datastream (twitter, alexa) surveys.

nacho:
This is fascinating...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/electoral-history-charts.html

You can really see some trends there, and a great dose of US history -- the landslide years: 64, 72, and 84.

Also some surprising GOP weak spots...

Reginald McGraw:
And Matt, please note DC's voting history.

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