Author Topic: Tales from Mother Russia  (Read 108651 times)

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Offline Nubbins

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #360 on: February 24, 2022, 11:29:19 AM »
Shots fired last night.

Washington Post coverage is pretty good for a recap. I'm wonder what other impetus there is for this, because Putin has degenerated into batshit crazy far quicker than I though he might. I always though him to have that old CIA./KGB firm grip. But he seems to have cracked in a way that I can't put my finger on.

I'm no historian or anything and I can barely stomach the news these days, so I'm admittedly not the most informed... but to me this seems like perfect timing if you're Putin. Think about the absolute chaos in the US on the political/social front (we have Trump openly praising Putin's move as genius) and we can't even agree on whether to wear masks into McDonald's or not. You've got crazed redneck trucker convoys across North America, our sloppy withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan after which their entire country basically collapsed. You've got the EU fracturing with the UK breaking off. Then there's Covid, etc. He's calculating that the world is too weak and divided to do anything about his invasion right now and both the US and NATO have said they won't support with troops on the ground. Of course, he also knows this because he's been hacked into some of our most sensitive information for years, probably. Vlad's also pushing 70... so if Ukraine is something he wants to absorb into Russia, time's short and there's hardly been a better time for him to make his move.

I also feel like China might be the big X factor in this. If they continue to prop up Russia's economy financially, then economic sanctions from the rest of the world will hardly matter. What, are we going to stop shipping iPads to Russia? How will they ever survive? Of course, China's said they're against the invasion and I know Russia and China make strange bedfellows, but given the march of democracy in the west and their attachment to authoritarianism, I'm betting they're in a enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend mode.

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Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #361 on: February 24, 2022, 01:07:44 PM »
I think what you're saying about China is the real X-Factor here. Though Beijing has said they don't support Russia's action, the certainly have better relations with them ten they do with any western countries. If China does decide to eventually back Russia, then we have an East v. West situation the world has never seen.

I binged the shit out of Ukraine  news last night and am now at last halfway convinced we're all going to die.

Offline Nubbins

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #362 on: February 24, 2022, 02:38:58 PM »
I binged the shit out of Ukraine  news last night and am now at last halfway convinced we're all going to die.

Yeah, I've started paying a lot closer attention to it as well. I watched TV for about 20 minutes earlier and BBC World News is 100% Ukraine while some of the other news stations are still focused on domestic shit, the convoys, etc.

It's a clusterfuck. It either results in all out war or the world just sits on its ass and condemns Putin, shuts off iPad shipments, and just shakes their heads in disappointment while he goes buck wild in Ukraine. I kinda think it's going to be the latter given the global exhaustion from the last 2 years. 
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Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #363 on: February 24, 2022, 03:15:41 PM »
I just watched Biden's speech and I'm not reassured. I know he's a doty old man and the only reason he's president is because he's not Trump, but that felt like, "I know your house is on fire, so what we're gonna do is fill up this bucket from the slowest tap in the house before we get the sleeping kids outside. Before that though, let's hide the matches so the kids can't find them and accidentally set the house on fire."
« Last Edit: February 24, 2022, 09:16:49 PM by RottingCorpse »

Offline Nubbins

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #364 on: February 24, 2022, 04:03:35 PM »
I just watched Biden's speech and I'm not reassured. I know he's a doty old man and the only reason he's president is because he's not Trump, but that felt like, "I know your house is on fire, so what we're gonna gonna do fill up this bucket from the slowest tap in the house before we get the sleeping kids outside. Before that though, let's hide the matches so the kids can't find them and accidentally set the house on fire."

Totally anemic response. The US and its allies should have been amassing troops in neighboring countries right along with the Russians if they really had any interest in stopping this. Instead, everyone just stood around, having meetings to discuss things, wagging fingers going, "Better not do what we know you're gonna do". On the one hand, I totally understand not wanting to get dragged into another endless war, but on the other they've been saying for the last two months that this was coming. And we've really been "at war" with the Russians forever at this point.

The only thing Vlad respects is shows of force. He could give two fucks about whatever economic sanctions Europe and the US have in their little bags because it won't hurt him, it will only hurt the Russian people. I saw a couple man-on-the-street interviews in Moscow and citizens there seem as horrified and upset about the invasion as the rest of the world for the most part.

Vlad knows war in Ukraine hurts us as much as it does him and he wants desperately to drag the western world down to his level. And who knows... maybe he knows this will drive the price of crude up in the US and almost assure that Biden won't get reelected.
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Offline Nubbins

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #365 on: February 24, 2022, 07:44:35 PM »
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Offline Nubbins

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #366 on: February 24, 2022, 08:08:17 PM »
Also, how long until China moves into Taiwan?
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Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #367 on: February 24, 2022, 09:21:29 PM »
Also, how long until China moves into Taiwan?

Why, whatever do you mean?

Quote
TAIPEI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Taiwan's air force scrambled again on Thursday to warn away nine Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, Taiwan's defence ministry said, on the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine, a crisis being watched closely in Taipei.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-nine-chinese-aircraft-its-air-defence-zone-2022-02-24/

Offline nacho

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #368 on: February 25, 2022, 10:43:04 AM »
China's more oil-hungry than we are at this point, so that puts them squarely in Putin's back pocket and, yes, makes the sanctions pointless. I'm not worried about Taiwan, though. We've literally positioned a third of our navy there specifically as a deterrent. Unless Russia and China are about to launch an all out war on multiple fronts against the entire planet and see that as an actual reasonable thing to do, I'm not worried about China doing something crazy. China's World War III strategy is very simple: They've learned a lesson from how we fought and won the Cold War. Outspend, outbuy, and bankrupt your enemy. Which they are doing beautifully. The American Republic won't collapse because of Trump, or because of war, or because of social strife. It'll collapse because we were outspent by China. The same way the Soviet Union collapsed because they couldn't keep up with us financially.

China suddenly dropping this decades-long and very well orchestrated strategy to go on a war footing would be the most insane thing possible. 

As for Ukraine: While the American press likes to go on and on about how it's exactly like the London Blitz because Kiev also has a subway system and...uh...children and...people who wear hats, I guess? The foreign press is reporting a clumsy Russian advance that has failed to achieve their goals and is taking a surprisingly large number of casualties.

Which is interesting to watch. There are two wars here. There's the war the US media wants us to be fighting? Or...thinks we're fighting maybe? In that war we're at the brink of global disaster. Today Kiev! Tomorrow Hoboken! And then there's the actual war where Chernobyl is the only obvious success and Russia is floundering in the trenches and the oligarchs back home are funding protests against Putin who is decidedly falling apart all across the homefront.

So I suppose the real question is: Which is true? Or is there a third reality somewhere in the middle?




Offline Nubbins

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #369 on: February 26, 2022, 02:05:55 PM »
https://youtu.be/4wnKi3r0ch0

Last transmission from Snake Island before the Russians bombed them and killed everyone.
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Offline nacho

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #370 on: February 27, 2022, 09:03:43 AM »
https://youtu.be/4wnKi3r0ch0

Last transmission from Snake Island before the Russians bombed them and killed everyone.

There are so many conflicting stories about Snake Island (including a recent interview with the supposedly dead borderguards) that I don't know what to believe.

I personally don't believe Snake Island because this is a page from the script for Battle of the Bulge. The "Nuits!" incident when the Germans demanded the surrender of a cut off squad hopelessly defending the remains of a town. It fits so perfectly with the "this is just like WWII" narrative that it's almost embarrassing.

Offline nacho

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #371 on: February 27, 2022, 12:00:36 PM »
And...peace talks agreed on with both sides. The foreign press reports over 5000 casualties and Russia has till not taken any strategic targets (or any of their goals) except a nuclear waste dump.

At home, the oligarchs have turned on Putin.

Of course, Putin also saying he's readying his nuclear arsenal isn't nice. But I think it's silly to complain about that considering that we never de-targeted Russia (though we forced them to de-target us). So... All's fair there I think.

Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #372 on: February 27, 2022, 12:27:50 PM »
Of course, Putin also saying he's readying his nuclear arsenal isn't nice.

Let's hope this isn't an "If I can't have Ukraine, no one will" situation.

Offline nacho

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #373 on: February 27, 2022, 12:41:17 PM »
Of course, Putin also saying he's readying his nuclear arsenal isn't nice.

Let's hope this isn't an "If I can't have Ukraine, no one will" situation.

I don't think you need to travel and have a formal meeting to say that.

Offline RottingCorpse

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Re: Tales from Mother Russia
« Reply #374 on: February 27, 2022, 12:57:12 PM »
Of course, Putin also saying he's readying his nuclear arsenal isn't nice.

Let's hope this isn't an "If I can't have Ukraine, no one will" situation.

I don't think you need to travel and have a formal meeting to say that.

Tell me that when you're negotiating for peace with Johnny Trucker from Idaho in the Bethesda Whole Foods parking lot next week.